I have recently stumbled on Quora question titled: “What are your thoughts on the chess Candidates tournament? Should FIDE give Radjabov a spot?”

While answering it, I included my own thoughts on everything related to the Candidates tournament. I was very satisfied with the final result and figured I might as well publish that answer on my blog.

So there you go. Hope you will enjoy my analysis of the controversial events surrounding the Candidates Tournament 2020.

For those who maybe weren’t following the situation with the Candidates tournament or are not that familiar with the chess world, let’s provide some background:

• Candidates Tournament is a tournament held every 2 years where 8 players compete for an opportunity to challenge the reigning World Champion in a World Chess Championship Match.
• Candidates Tournament is held every two years. The 2020 edition was initially supposed to be played from 16^th March to 5^th of April, 2020.
• After this whole “corona” thing started escalating at the end of February and beginning of the may and all sorts of (sports) events started to get cancelled, the fate of the Candidates Tournament was uncertain. FIDE – Official Chess Federation – decided to go with the decision to stage the tournament nevertheless, stating that low number of players doesn’t constitute such a big risk.
• On 6^th of March, it was announced that one of the participants, Azeri Grandmaster Teimour Radjabov, withdrew from the tournament and that best French player, Maxime Vachier Lagrave, will replace him. Even though FIDE initially claimed that he quoted “personal reasons” Radjabov later announced he was exchanged several letter with the FIDE administration in days prior to the announcement, expressing his concerns about the safety of the participants and suggesting that probably it would be best to postpone the tournament to a later date. ¹
• The tournament, therefore started as planned on 16^th of March. However, on 26^th March, after 7 rounds (out of 14) it was announced that tournament will be postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic after Russia announced it would be interrupting air traffic with other countries starting on 27^th March – apparently, there was a possibility that some of the participants (and members of their delegations) would get stranded in Russia with no way to return home.  ²
• According to all the information issued by FIDE officials, the plan is to wait for the coronavirus outbreak to end and then to continue the tournament from the current standpoint, keeping the result of the rounds played so far.

Okay, after this brief overview of how we got to this point, I can get try to answer your question and share some of my own thoughts about the Candidates tournament and Radjabov’s case:

• First of all, I think it was a horrible mistake to insist on holding the Candidates tournament. I get it that there are sponsors, interests, cycles and everything involved, but considering the situation in the world it was the logical thing to do. Besides, it is much easier to cancel an event with 8 players than European Football Championship or the Olympic Games. 
• Secondly, even if we completely disregard the direct danger from Covid-19 to the players, it was extremely difficult for them to focus on chess with the “world in flames”. It was clear that some player’s play was way below their level. Fabiano Caruana, in particular, played far from his best, while the other pre-tournament favorite Ding Liren (who had to spend 14 days in quarantine in Moscow before the tournament) has had his worst tournament in many years (losing 3 games out of 7).
• It is no wonder that several players (Grischuk, Wang Hao) stated in their interviews that the atmosphere is hostile (with everyone wearing masks) and that they basically don’t want to be there. This was echoed by Kramnik (who actually withdrew from commentating on the event just before it started as a sign of protest)  in the post Candidates interview with chess.com (available in the aforementioned article):

“ In such a situation, you want to stay with your family, you want to stay home, with your relatives, your beloved ones. It just feels wrong that you’re playing chess when basically you must support your family. To let them play under such pressure which simply makes them nervous, negative, depressed, it just feels wrong somehow. Besides, to care of their health, you must give them the right conditions to show their mastery.”

• Now, some people have a contrary, “brutal” opinion that the players are professionals and that if you went to play chess that then you should play chess. Magnus Carlsen was very vocal in expressing this opinion during the chess24 stream. Later he even got into a Twitter “duel” with Radjabov, essentially claiming that if he wanted to play, he would have played.
• Now, as much as I love Magnus and his opinions, I disagree with him here. I don’t buy all that “Once you sit to play chess, you play chess” rhetoric. The players are not robots or gladiators, but human beings. I think it is crucial to secure the best possible conditions so they are able to display their best chess.
• Now, as for Radjabov… After it turned out he was right to insist on the postponement on the tournament, a heated debate revolving whether he should be given opportunity to play in the next Candidates arose. He himself said he was very motivated for the Candidates (claiming he even prepared with Sergey Karjakin) and that he thinks the tournament should start anew, with him included (he even said he will contact his lawyer). He even got support from the Azerbaijan national team, who wrote an open letter to FIDE asking for Radjabov to be included.
• Other people advocated a different solution – granting him the wildcard spot for the next Candidates 2022. I think Kramnik was also in favor of this, while Magnus said it would be ridiculous (as you may have figured, Magnus thinks Radjabov had an opportunity to play which he missed and that it wouldn’t be fair to grant him another chance).
• On the other hand, it is clear that starting the new tournament would be unfair – especially to players leading the event (Maxime Vachier Lagrave and Nepomniachtchi). In the most recent chess.com article, several participants of the Candidates tournament (Giri, Alekseenko and Maxime himself) stated they are against starting the tournament anew. ³
• Therefore, it is obvious that there is no solution that will keep everyone happy. I can also understand the viewpoint that it is Radjabov’s own fault (if 8 other players could agree to play, so could have he). I am not even sure whether he has any legal basis to claim to be included.
• However, I think it would be very nice to step away from papers and formal documents and be human beings. Radjabov is definitely the moral winner here and it is very hard not to be sympathetic with his side of the story (even though he did make some borderline “racist” remarks when he said that he is worried about another Chinese participant Wang Hao not being in quarantine. I personally think this “anti-Chinese” panic at the beginning of the virus outbreak was not justified).
• Moreover, many have pointed out that cutting the tournament in half and postponing it to a later day breaks the natural flow of the competition. We now basically have two tournaments where results will be added. When you also take my previous argument that several players played below their level, a chess fan inside of me has a lot of trouble accepting the validity and legitimacy of the tournament results.
• I think that the right Solomon solution would be to take the path of least evil. Therefore, my personal proposal to resolve the current situation would be – start the tournament anew and include Radjabov. Maxime and Nepo are granted wildcards for the 2022 Candidates tournament if they meet certain conditions at that time (say, if their rating doesn’t fall below 2700 or something like that).
• I think this would make some sense. Maxime and Nepo are leading by one point ahead of the group of 4 players, so the tournament is far from being decided. I think it wouldn’t be the same as the controversial termination of the Kasparov-Karpov 1984 match with the score standing 5-3 in Karpov’s favour (although even today it is not clear who benefited from that termination – but that is a topic for another day).
• Moreover, Nepo and Maxime are younger than Radjabov so granting the wild card for Candidates 2022 to them makes more sense – this could be Radjabov’s last real opportunity to fight for the title. God knows if he will belong to the world elite in two years.

So yeah, I’d like to see Radja there.

However, it is not an easy decision to make and I am not 100% sure it would be the correct one.

I can understand the logic behind not doing it as well. So who knows what will happen.

The only thing that is certain is – the Candidates tournament 2020 should have never started in the first place.

P.S. I have just read an excellent article titled by Macedonian GM Alex Čolović titled Now What? about the current situation. Highly recommended!

The post Candidates Tournament 2020 – Aftermath appeared first on Chessentials.

I have been meaning to write this post for a while. Considering that the annual January Tata Steel chess tournament recently finished, I thought it might be a good moment to take stock and try to predict the outcome of the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2020.

Hope you will enjoy it!

The format and the venue

So, from March 15 to April 4, FIDE Candidates Tournament will be held in Yekaterinburg, Russia. The tournament will be a double round-robin – 8 participates will play 2 games against each other, one with the White pieces and one with the Black pieces, amounting to a total of 14 games.

Time control is rather “long”: 100 minutes for the first 40 moves, with additional 50 minutes gained after move 40, and 15 minutes gain after move 60. Starting from move 1, the standard 30 seconds increment is included.

The Candidates tournament is an “all-or-nothing” event – the winner will gain the right to challenge Magnus in the World Chess Championship 2020 match (which will be held toward the end of 2020). The other seven participants will go home¹ and watch the match in front of their TV screens² (or computer screens, considering that Twitch is the new standard for the World Championship matches).

Participants

As mentioned above, the lineup of the Candidates tournament comprises a total of 8 players. Clause 2 of the FIDE regulations for the Candidates tournament describes the qualification criteria in great detail. In any case, for the 2020 edition of the Candidates tournament, the following players are eligible to participate:

• Fabiano Caruana – 2018 World Championship runner-up

• Teimour Radjabov – 2019 World Cup winner

• Ding Liren – 2019 World Cup runner-up

• Wang Hao – FIDE Grand Swiss Tournament 2019 top finisher (winner), who hasn’t qualified by one of the above two methods and is not Carlsen himself (Carlsen played in FIDE Grand Swiss Tournament, which is a paradox in itself)

Erm, sorry, that’s the wrong Wang Hao – former table tennis World Champion and Olympic silver medalist. Here is the right one:

• Alexander Grischuk – winner of the FIDE Grand Prix 2019

• Ian Nepomnhiachtchi – runner-up of the FIDE Grand Prix 2019

• Anish Giri – highest average rating in the period between February 2019 and January 2020

• Kiril Alekseenko – wild card selected by the organizer, subject to eligibility criteria. Alekseenko was eligible for the wild card based on his performance in the FIDE Grand Swiss Tournament 2019, although his selection has caused some controversies, as will be pointed out later in this answer.

Now that we know the names (and the faces), I’d like to take a moment to talk about my estimation of each player’s chances in the upcoming tournament.

Predictions

• Fabiano Caruana

Even before Tata Steel, Fabiano Caruana has been considered as one of the pre-tournament favourites, together with Ding Liren.

His playing strength and accolades are well known. He has been one of the strongest players in the world for years, he has won a number of super tournaments and he proved to be Magnus’ equal in the previous World Championship match.

Another factor I think is very important is – Caruana already has a lot of experience playing in the Candidates tournament (this is his third time) and he proved that pressure doesn’t affect him all that match. He came second in 2016 (losing to Karjakin in the final round because he was forced to play for the win with the black pieces) and he won convincingly in 2018.

Another reason Fabi’s fans have a lot of ground for optimism is his Tata Steel performance. 10/13, +19 rating points, 2900+ performance, would all be impressive even if it were a regular tournament. But when you also consider he might have been hiding his preparation, it was just a surreal performance.

There is even an “urban myth” that previous Candidates winners traditionally perform poorly in Tata Steel – Caruana himself had a terrible tournament in 2018.

Will he be able to break this “curse”? It remains to be seen.

• Teimour Radjabov

Radjabov’s win at the World Chess Cup qualification for the Candidates Tournament 2020 is probably one of the biggest upsets in the entire history of chess.

Even though he was one of the strongest players in the 2000s and at the beginning of 2010s, he has disappeared from the scene in recent years. He didn’t play much at all and has openly talked about how he lost the drive for chess and how he is considering retiring/doing something else.

Even after the qualification for the Candidates, he made some…strange remarks. For example, he initially said he doesn’t yet know if he will participate (?!). ³

Therefore, when you consider his inner struggles, the fact that he was a very solid player even at the height of his powers (drawing more often than winning) and that he wasn’t as active in the recent years, it is clear why he is considered as one of the outsiders.

(Performances such as this one don’t win you tournaments. Source:FIDE)

On the other hand, he is devilishly talented and during the World Cup, he reminded everybody of his strength.

So, who knows. Maybe he will defy all expectations and do well.

• Ding Liren

Together with Caruana, Ding Liren is considered as the main favourite to win the tournament. Before Tata Steel, I even thought this might be his year, but consider how Caruana played there, I am not so sure any longer :D.

Ding is currently the world number 3, he has had a very good 2019 (World Cup finalist, Sinquefield Cup winner, beating Magnus in the tiebreak) and is just generally regarded as an ultra-strong player.

It is well known that he is very solid and that he rarely loses games. Whereas this is, without denying, an important trait of a chess player, for a tournament of this caliber this might actually be a deficiency. For example, in the previous edition, Ding didn’t lose a single game, but just won 3 of them, finishing only fourth. Already back then, some people commented that he is too solid.

(A bit too solid to win the event of this caliber. Will Ding manage to increase the risk margin, but not overstep it? Source: FIDE)

He did adjust his style a bit recently and started winning more, but it will be very interesting to see his approach in March. Will he be able to defy his character and risk more, will that lead to him risking too much, or will he once again (over)focus on not losing? It remains to be seen.

• Wang Hao

Apart from Ding Liren, China will have the second candidate for the first time in history. And whereas it was not surprising to see Ding’s name on the list, Wang Hao’s qualification was as equally unexpected as surprising as Radjabov’s.

In a way, there are similarities between Wang and Radjabov. Both are huge talents, who were once members of the world elite who then almost disappeared from the elite circuit. Both seem to struggle with the motivation and professional approach to chess ⁴ and for both, the qualification for the Candidates represented a sort of a comeback.

Therefore, Wang Hao can – just like Radjabov – be definitely regarded as an outsider. Especially since he is Chinese – I get the feeling that Ding Liren is more likely to receive the full support of the federation (just like, say, Botvinnik got it in Soviet times), because

A) He is the stronger player and has greater chances of winning the tournament

B) I remember reading somewhere how Wang Hao lamented that Chinese players have to turn their prize money to their Federation/Government. I wouldn’t say that this open criticism is received too well in his homeland.

Of course, it may be pure speculation and Wang might become the next challenger. Time will tell.

As for those worrying about whether having two Chinese players in the same tournament might lead to potential collusion, I don’t think it is very likely:

• Alexander Grischuk

Apart from clear favourites Caruana and Ding and clear outsiders (Radjabov, Wang Hao, Alekseenko), I’d divide the rest of the players into the third group – those I don’t expect to win the event, nor to be last.

Grischuk falls into this category. His class as a player is undoubted and he has been a regular World Championship Candidate for almost a decade (he famously lost to Gelfand in the final of the 2012 cycle and he participated in 2014 and 2018).

However, even though he is always there somewhere, he has never been close to qualifying for the match (nor is he winning super tournaments on a regular basis). It is hard to say what is that little something that is missing. Depth of opening preparation? Nerves in critical moments? Weird handling of the clock?

I really don’t know. And I really don’t care. His chess performance during the Candidates tournament is secondary to his regular press conference comedy routine. Who would forget all those hilarious “Yes, I can read” and “Mr. Ding” remarks from Berlin 2018.

Candidates tournament without Grischuk wouldn’t be the same.

• Ian Nepomniachtchi

Even though my impulse is to put Nepo in the same category as Grischuk and Giri (not the favourite, not the outsider), his performance is most difficult to predict.

I think that Nepo, as a player, is more dependant on his emotions than some other top players. I think he is more likely to go on fire when things are going really well and more likely to have a disastrous set of results once things don’t go his way.

His performance at Croatia Grand Chess Tour 2019 is a perfect example. After winning first three games and leading the event, something went wrong in the middle of everything and Nepo collapsed (although it has to be said he had suspicious positions and a lot of luck in the first three games, as well):

His manner of play is also something that makes him unpredictable. Compared to all other players in this tournament, Nepo lands in dubious positions more frequently (sometimes result of his superficial play, but maybe also the consequence of somewhat inferior opening preparation ?). However – just like in the first three games of the Croatia Grand Tour – he often manages to extricate himself from danger. There is a reason he is regarded as a very tricky player.

In an event such as Candidates, this might be a double-edged approach. On one hand, the importance of an opening preparation in such an event is increased. On the other hand, his tenacity and defensive skill might make it more difficult to his opponents to finish him off – sometimes that is already difficult in itself when the nerves are operating and the stakes are high.

In any case, it will be interesting to follow his play. Even though I’d like Caruana to win in order to provide us with a close Wch match, and even though I also like Wang Hao because he likes anime and video games, Nepo has long been my favourite and seeing him challenge Magnus would put a big smile on my face :).

• Anish Giri

Anish Giri is often mocked in the chess community as a “drawing master” who “never wins super tournaments”. As usual, there is some truth in these overly used jokes because Giri is in a way, just like Grischuk – always somewhere close to the top, never quite climbing it.

However, due to his reputation, people often underestimate him and reach conclusions a priori, without even looking at his games. For example, the drawing jokes were all the rage after the Candidates tournament 2016, where Giri scored the “perfect” 14/14 in terms of drawn games.

Alas, many people forget he reached a number of winning positions, such as in his 9th round game against Caruana:

(White is completely winning here. The engine gives +3 for White)

Or in his 11th round game against Nakamura:

(Here, 50 Re5 seems very promising, although it is not easy to calculate and evaluate the consequences of taking on f2. Giri forced a draw instead)

So yeah, even though he is not the nr. 1 contender, we shouldn’t forget he can be very dangerous and that his opening expertise might land him in several good positions during such a long tournament.

If he starts converting them, we might be in for a surprise.

• Kiril Alekseenko

Last but not least, the clearest outsider is the wild card nominee Kiril Alekseenko.

Alekseenko become eligible for the wildcard on the basis of his performance in the FIDE Grand Swiss tournament and basically got invited because he is Russian – the company sponsoring the Candidates tournament insisted on this and, as usual, the money decided the issue.

His invitation caused some controversy. Many felt a player who is currently nr. 37 in the world and who only recently broke the 2700 rating barrier shouldn’t get a place in an elite event such as Candidates tournament. French chess fans were especially devastated that their fan, Maxime Vachier Lagrave, once again missed the qualifying spot, despite being incredibly close on several occasions (he was second on rating, he lost in the semifinal of the World Cup and he came in third in the FIDE Grand Prix).

Maxime’s manager even wrote an open letter to FIDE, appealing for a match between Alekseenko and Maxime to determine the final spot, but in vain.

In a way, nobody can blame Alekseenko for anything. He got his chance and he took it. But his qualification should raise a question about the current qualifying system and whether it is a good time to abolish the wild-card concept whatsoever.

In any case, I don’t estimate Alekseenko having any chances for winning the tournament whatsoever and, quite frankly, anything than him coming last would be a huge surprise for me.

Conclusion

To be honest, compared to the previous editions, I feel that this year’s edition of the Candidates tournament is a bit uneven – at least of paper. It was very surprising to see Wang Hao and Teimour Radjabov qualify – both players haven’t been members of the world elite in the years prior to 2019 (and it was an impression they don’t take chess up as seriously and professionally as their colleagues). Also, there is no denying that Kiril Alekseenko is a clear outsider.

It is very easy to pick the pre-tournament favourites (Caruana and Ding), players who nobody expects to have serious chances (Wang Hao, Teimour Radjabov, Kiril Alekseenko) and those “inbetweeners”, who are expected to reside in the middle of the tournament table (Grischuk, Giri). Arguably, Ian Nepomniachtchi also belongs to this category, although he might be a sort of a “dark horse” of the tournament.

Of course, there is a high probability that all these predictions and speculations will fall into the water once the actual play begins. A number of other factors will play a crucial role – how the players will be able to handle the pressure and control the nerves, how lucky they will be with their choice of openings and catching their opponents in prepared variations, whether they will be on form or not, whether they will play too recklessly against Alekseenko because they expect to beat him, etc.

In any case, considering that the previous Candidates tournaments were bloodbaths with a huge number of decisive games, I think the 2020 edition will be the most exciting and dramatic tournament of the entire year.

Can’t wait for it to start!

The post Candidates Tournament 2020: Analysis and predictions appeared first on Chessentials.