Introduction

The upcoming Candidates Tournament 2024 is not only notable due to the fact it will be the first Candidates tournament to be held on North American soil.

For the very first time, it will be held alongside the Women’s Candidates Tournament 2024, in which some of the best female players in the world will be fighting for first place and the chance to qualify for the Women’s World Chess Championship and challenge Ju Wenjun for the title of Women’s World Champion.

Since the beginning of that tournament is also just a couple of days away, I thought it would be a nice idea to follow up on my previous article on the Candidates Tournament 2024 and make an even bigger fool of myself by trying to predict the outcome of the Women’s Candidates Tournament 2024.

I hope you will enjoy it!

Woman’s Candidates Tournament 2024

Regulations and the Format

The regulations and the format of the Women’s Candidates Tournament 2024 are fairly similar to its “Open” counterpart. It will be held at the exact same time (3rd-23rd April) in the exact same place (Great Hall, Toronto, Canada) and will have exactly the same schedule:

(Official Schedule of the Women’s Candidates Tournament. You can notice that the rounds start at the exact same time – 2:30 PM – as in the Candidate Tournament. Free days also coincide. Source: Official Regulations of the Women’s Candidates Tournament 2024)

The tournament will also be held using the double round-robin format and will feature the same tiebreak system. The only fundamental difference is related to the time control, which will be 90 minutes for the first 40 moves, followed by 30 minutes for the rest of the game, with an increment of 30 seconds per move starting from move 1. ¹

I don’t fully grasp the reasoning behind having two fundamentally different time controls in two tournaments held alongside each other. One can’t even claim that they wanted to make the time control for the Women’s tournament shorter, ² since 90 minutes + 30 seconds of increment for the first 40 moves is approximately as long as 120 minutes + 0 seconds of increment for the first 40 moves. I genuinely can’t think of a single good reason why both tournaments didn’t feature the same time control. ³

In any case, I do hope we will see some high-quality games and entertaining chess in both events, in spite of the time control differences.

List of Participants

Time control is not the only big difference between the Women’s Candidates Tournament and the Candidates Tournament. Qualification paths for both events were also substantially different, due to the existence of the Grand Prix Series in the Women’s section and Grand Circuit in the Open section. According to the Official FIDE Regulations for the Women’s Candidates Tournament, players qualified based on the following criteria:

(Qualification regulations for the Women’s Candidates Tournament 2024. Source: Regulations for the Woman’s Candidates Tournament 2024, taken from the FIDE Handbook)

According to the regulations, 8 qualified players are, as follows:

• Lei Tingjie – runner-up from the Women’s World Chess Championship 2023
• Kateryna Lagno – winner of the Women’s Grand Prix 2022-2023
• Aleksandra Goryachkina – runner-up of the Women’s Grand Prix 2022-2023
• Nurgyul Salimova – runner-up of the Women’s Chess World Cup 2023
• Anna Muzychuk – third place winner of the Women’s Chess World Cup 2023 ⁴
• Vaishali Rameshbabu – winner of the Women’s Grand Swiss 2023
• Zhongyi Tan – third place winner of the Women’s Grand Swiss 2023 ⁵
• Humpy Koneru – the highest-rated player that didn’t yet qualify on 1st of January, 2024. ⁶

Assessment of the participants’ chances

After introducing you to the regulations and the players, I will now follow the procedure from the article on the Candidates Tournament by estimating each of the participant’s chances and predicting the outcome of the event.

In my analysis, I will be focusing on three parameters:

• Strength/Recent Form
• Nerves/Experience 
• Head-to-head score against the other participants

Aleksandra Goryachkina

Strength/recent form

Aleksandra Goryachkina is generally regarded as one of the stronger players in this event. She is not only one of only 6 female players who crossed 2600, ⁷ but she is also a former winner of Candidates Tournament and World Chess Championship Challenger. Since she is still comparatively young (born in 1998), she should not be at the age where her strength starts declining and should have every hope of doing well and winning the entire event.

With that being said, even though at some point she looked like the next Judit/Hou Yifan, ⁸ it has never somehow materialized. Ever since her peak of 2600 back in 2021 and her defeat against Ju Wenjun in the World Chess Championship match, Goryachkina hasn’t been the same dominant force in female chess she used to be.

Don’t get me wrong, she is still a very strong grandmaster/player. But since 2022, her rating has been gradually declining from 2600 to 2553, where it currently stands.

(Goryachkina’s rating chart since January 2022. Source: Goryachkina’s FIDE Profile)

Naturally, in this period, Goryachkina’s results were far from impressive. To name a few:

• In August 2022, she lost 20 rating points by drawing all of her games in the Russian Higher League
• In December 2022, she lost the semi-final Candidates match to Tan Zhongyi
• In March 2023, she didn’t have a particularly good result at the European Individual Championship 2023
• In April and May of 2023, she didn’t have the most successful performance at the Women’s FIDE Grand Prix, where she lost some rating and failed to secure the Candidates spot
• In November 2023, she had a bad result at FIDE Grand Swiss 2023, scoring 6/11 and losing a further 13 points

Her only good results in the recent past are a 10-rating point gain in the Russian Superfinal for Men in October 2023 and the victory at the Women’s World Cup 2023. Thus, I think it is fair to say that Goryachkina has been on a “decline” for a while and that she will not arrive in Toronto at the height of her powers.

Nerves/Experience

On the other hand, even though she is still relatively young, Goryachkina is already extremely experienced, having played top (female) events for almost a decade and already having a win in the Candidates and participation in a World Championship match under her belt.

On the other hand, even though GM Rafael Leitiao mentioned he considers her to have strong nerves in the most recent episode of the Perpetual Chess Podcast, I am not 100% sure I fully agree. On one hand, she did win a must-win game in the 2020 World Chess Championship match against Ju Wenjun. But on the other hand, she also suffered back-to-back losses in games 9 and 10 in a seemingly winning position. Her loss to Tan Zhongyi in the 2022-2023 might also be attributed to nerves, although it is hard to tell whether it had more to do with her declining form (and the fact Tan played superbly).

Admittedly, this is precisely where experience comes in. Whether Goryachkina’s nerves are an asset or liability and whether these past failures will help her control them better – remains to be seen.

Head-to-head score against the other participants

Goryachkina’s head-to-head score against the other participants is as follows:

• Goryachkina – Tingjie: +0-1=1
• Goryachkina – Lagno: +2-0=9
• Goryachkina – Koneru: -0+1=2
• Goryachkina – Tan: +3-3=4
• Goryachkina – Muzychuk: +1-1=9
• Goryachkina – Vaishali: +0-0=3
• Goryachkina – Salimova +0-0=3 ⁹

From Goryachkina’s head-to-head scores, we can observe/conclude the following:

• She has played a remarkably low amount of games against four participants in the tournament. I was particularly surprised by the fact she only played two games against Lei Tingjie (back in 2015 and 2016) and only three against Koneru, given that all three have been top female players for a while.
• I was less surprised by the relatively low amount of games against Vaishali and Salimova given their youth. But I was somewhat surprised Goryachkina wasn’t able to demonstrate her superiority or obtain a plus score.
• Goryachkina’s encounters against Lagno and Muzychuk feature a relatively high percentage of draws. Although she does have a 2:0 plus score against the former.
• Goryachkina’s head-to-head score against Tan Zhongyi is remarkably bloodthirsty. In recent times, Zhongyi does seem to be on the better side of it, given her victories in the 2022 Candidates Match and in the 2023 FIDE Grand Swiss. Although Goryachkina got her revenge in the 2023 FIDE World Cup. 

Thus, the head-to-head score against other participants doesn’t particularly seem to go in Goryachkina’s favour. So far, she has not been able to demonstrate her superiority against “lower seeds” and has also had some difficulties when facing players such as Lei Tingjie, Humphy Koneru and Tan Zhongyi. When you couple that with the fact she wasn’t in the best form in recent years, one might hesitate to consider her a favourite in the event.

Still given she is still very young and the highest-rated participant in the tournament, it would be also foolish to not consider her as a serious contender.  The betting companies do seem to share that sentiment:

I  contemplated a lot about whether her chances were higher than, say, Lei’s. ¹⁰ Due to her classical, positional, and solid style, I can’t see her losing many games and having a bad event. And I can easily see her winning enough games to win the entire event.

Ultimately, due to the fact Tingjie Lei has not played that much chess in recent years and that Goryachkina absolutely dominated the last Candidates tournament held using the round-robin system, I have selected her as the ultimate winner.

Although I heavily disagree with the betting odds. I don’t think she should be considered a favorite by such a large margin.

Tingjie Lei

Strength/recent form

Tingjie Lei is generally regarded as one of the strongest female players in the world. With a rating of 2550, she is currently the 4th player on the women’s rating list. ¹¹ She was one of the participants in the most recent Women’s World Chess Championship and is still comparatively young. ¹²

And while no sane person can doubt her class/playing strength, her recent form is much more difficult to gauge. For a very simple reason – in recent years, Lei Tingjie has played surprisingly little chess.

This is not an exaggeration. Since April 2020, Lei

• played a total of 4 events and 38 classical games
• didn’t play a single classical game between
  • April 2020 – November 2021 ¹³
  • January 2022 – November 2022
  • August 2023 – April 2024 ¹⁴

True, these periods of inactivity/lack of practice don’t seem to affect her play. Lei performed well in virtually every event she participated in in the last four years:

• Women’s Grand Swiss 2021: 9/11, +30 rating points
• Women’s Candidates Match against Mariya Muzychuk: 2.5-1.5, +4.60 rating points
• Women’s Candidates Match against Anna Muzychuk: 2.5-1.5, +4.60 rating points
• Women’s Candidates Match against Tan Zhongyi: 3.5/5, +8.50 rating points
• Women’s World Championship against Ju Wenjun: 5.5/12, -3.80 rating points, losing by the narrowest of margins

But I would say Lei has thrived despite – not because of – her inactivity/lack of practice. Speaking historically, not playing before the Candidates tournament might not be the best strategy – as Firouzja’s result in the Candidates 2022 demonstrates. Whether it will affect Lei as well – remains to be seen.

Nerves/Experience

Even though she is still relatively young ¹⁵ Lei has experience playing at the elite level. In the recent cycle, she won three Candidates Matches and ultimately qualified for the World Chess Championship Match against Ju Wenjun, which she lost by the narrowest of margins. ¹⁶ My impression is that she has displayed very good nerves throughout these events. And even though one could take losing the final game of the World Chess Championship as evidence of the contrary, I do believe it speaks more about Ju Wenjun’s strong nerves rather than Tingjie’s weak ones. ¹⁷

Head-to-head score against the other participants

Lei’s head-to-head score against the other participants is as follows:

• Lei – Goryachkina: +1-0=1
• Lei – Lagno: +0-2=2
• Lei – Koneru: +0-4=0
• Lei – Zhongyi: 5-4=10
• Lei – Muzychuk: +1-0=3
• Lei – Vaishali: +0-0=0
• Lei – Salimova: +0-0=0

From Lei’s head-to-head scores, we can observe the following:

• Lei has a slight plus score against Goryachkina,  Tan, and Muzychuk. The fact that she beat the last two in the previous Candidates cycle might theoretically be somewhat relevant (since it was also a high-stress situation).
• She also has a slightly more negative score against Lagno and Koneru. The latter, in particular, seems to be a very tough opponent for her, given that she has beaten her in every single classical game they ever played. However, three of these games happened way back in the day (one in 2013 Chinese Team Championship and two in the 2015 Women’s World Championship Knockout Tournament). Furthermore, in their last game, played in 2021, Lei blundered in an equal position.
• Lei hasn’t played a single classical game against Vaishali and Salimova.  This is somewhat expected given that these two are relative “newcomers”, but it will be very interesting to see how their first encounters will develop in such an important and nerve-wracking tournament.

All in all, given that Lei is the second highest-rated player,  that she now has World Chess Championship experience and that she won the last Candidates, it is hard not to consider her as one of the top two favourite, despite the comparative lack of practice and negative score against players such as Lagno or Koneru. I hesitated a lot between picking her or Goryachkina as the final winner, but have ultimately decided to go with the latter.

Humpy Koneru

Strength/recent form

Humphy Koneru is one of the greatest female players of all time. She has been one of the top female players for almost 20 years. ¹⁸ Back in 2007 (!!),  she became the second female player to break the 2600 rating barrier and was the strongest female player in the world, until she eventually got overshadowed by Hou Yifan. Even today, her live rating of 2546 is sufficient for the 5th spot on the women’s rating list. And is not that far from Goryachkina’s 2553 and Tingjie’s 2550.

On the other hand, Koneru doesn’t arrive in Toronto in the best shape. In recent years, she has had a number of mediocre – or even outright bad – events, such as:

• Women’s Grand Prix 2023 – Third Leg, where she scored 4.5/9 and lost 9 points
• Cairns Cup 2023 where she lost 14 rating points ¹⁹
• Women’s World Cup 2023 where she got eliminated in round 3 by Bella Khotenashvili

Her most recent performance in the Graz Open 2024 A just a month ago²⁰also wasn’t stellar.

In fact, I don’t think all these results can only be attributed to “bad form”. I think it is fair to say that Koneru is past her prime and is slowly declining. In the last few years, her rating went from 2586 to 2546.

(Humphy Koneru’s rating progress since 2022. Source: Koneru’s FIDE profile)

Given that Goryachkina’s graph followed a similar trajectory, one might argue this in itself is not evidence of decline or being “past your prime”. ²¹ But when you also take the fact Koneru is the oldest participant in the tournament, one does feel it will be much harder for her to regain these points than for someone 10 years younger. ²² And that the term “past your prime” is much more applicable.

Nerves/Experience

As the oldest participant in the tournament, Koneru is not lacking in experience. Even though she has had several breaks from competitive chess, she never fully “went away” and has been competing at the top level for almost two decades. She previously participated in several World Championship Knockout Tournaments (2004, 2008 and 2010) and even played a World Chess Championship match against Hou Yifan back in 2011. ²³

While only a madman would doubt her experience, her nerves might be a different kettle of fish. In the aforementioned episode of Perpetual Chess Podcast, GM Rafael Leitiao mentioned Koneru might be somewhat struggling in the nerves department. The most notable argument in favour of this evaluation is her dramatic loss to Anastasia Bodnaruk in the tiebreak of the 2023 World Rapid Championship, where Koneru was objectively the superior player on the board. One could also take her past failures at the World Championship Knockout Tournaments as evidence. Most notably her elimination in the 2004 edition when she lost to relatively lesser-known Russian player Ekaterina Kovalevskaya. ²⁴

However, this sample size is rather small. Whether this evaluation is correct – and whether Koneru will be able to use her experience to control her nerves even if it is correct – remains to be seen.

Head-to-head score against the other participants

Koneru’s head-to-head score against the other participants is as follows:

• Koneru – Goryachkina: +1-0=2
• Koneru-Lei: +4-0=0
• Koneru-Lagno +3-2=1
• Koneru – Tan +1-0=1
• Koneru – Muzychuk +3-3=7
• Koneru – Vaishali +0-0=1
• Koneru – Salimova +0-0=0

From the head-to-head scores, we can observe the following:

• Koneru has the head-to-head scores going her way. She has a positive or neutral score against all of the other participants in the tournament.
• Against most of the players (Goryachkina, Lei, Tan), the plus score is minimal (+1). But in the case of Tingjie Lei, it is overwhelmingly in Koneru’s favour.
• On the other hand, given that she is significantly older than most of the other participants (apart from Lagno), these scores are not that surprising. One would expect an established player like Koneru to beat the players from the younger generation while they are still “on the rise”.
• Koneru has played only one game against the two youngest participants in the tournament.

All in all, even though it is probably nice to enter a tournament having a positive score against the other participants, I am not sure how relevant it will be. I think nerves, form, and general playing strength will be much more impactful on the final standings.

Considering all these factors, I do think that the general sentiment about Koneru not being the top contender, but having a legitimate chance to win, is reasonable. It is hard to put her in the same tier as Lei and Goryachkina, given that these two are both younger and slightly higher rated. But there are also no reasons to consider her chances any lower compared to say, Lagno, Muzychuk and Tan. If things go her way, she can definitely go all the way. But on average, I would expect her to end up somewhere in the middle of the pack.

Of course, where exactly in the middle was not so clear to me. Ultimately, I have decided to put her at the “bottom of the pack” – in the 6th place – purely due to her age and potential issues with her nerves.

Kateryna Lagno

Strength/recent form

Kateryna Lagno is another great female player who has been consistently a part of the world elite for many years. Throughout her career, she has won several important titles (World Blitz Championship 2010 and 2018, World Rapid Championship 2014, and European Individual Women Championship 2008, to name a few), been a regular contender in Women’s World Chess Championship cycles, and even played the final match against Ju Wenjun in the 2018 edition, losing by the narrowest of margins. ²⁵

With a live rating of 2542, Lagno is the 6th highest-rated female player in the world and fourth in this tournament. Furthermore, she is not lagging behind Goryachkina, Lei, and Koneru by much.  Based on rating alone, she should have as good a chance as anyone to win the tournament and qualify for the match against Ju.

However – just like Goryachkina and Koneru, she doesn’t arrive in Toronto in the best shape of her life. Her most recent tournament performances weren’t brilliant – although they weren’t particularly bad, either:

• FIDE Women’s Grand Prix 2022-2023 – Third Leg:  5/9, lost 2 rating points
• FIDE Women’s Grand Prix 2022-2023 – Fourth Leg: 6/11, lost 6 rating points
• FIDE Women’s World Cup 2023 – Got eliminated in round 1 by Mary Ann Gomes, lost 6 rating points
• Russian Superfinal 2023 – scored 4/11, lost 4 rating points

Furthermore, given that she is the second oldest participant in the tournament, one can again make an argument she is – very much like Koneru – “past her prime.”

Nerves/Experience

As the second-oldest participant in the tournament, Lagno doesn’t lack in experience. As mentioned above, she has been competing at the top level for many years and has participated in numerous elite events.

Given her multiple victories in World Blitz and Rapid Championships, one could also make an argument her nerves are very good. However, she has also suffered some dramatic defeats in important events in recent years, such as:

• Losing with White in the 4th classical game of the 2018 Women’s World Championship Knockout Tournament, when a draw would have guaranteed her the title
• Losing to Tan Zhongyi in the quarterfinals of the previous World Championship Cycle, while missing a number of chances
• Losing to Mary Ann Gomes in World Cup 2023

I guess a certain decline of the nervous system is expected with age. We will see how Lagno will be able to handle it in this, high-stress, event.

Head-to-head score against the other participants

Lagno’s head-to-head score against the other participants is as follows:

• Lagno – Goryachkina: +0-2=9
• Lagno – Lei: +2-0=2
• Lagno – Koneru: +2-3=11
• Lagno – Tan: +4-2=4
• Lagno – Muzychuk: +1-3=13
• Lagno – Vaishali: +1-0=1
• Lagno – Salimova: +0-0=0

From the head-to-head scores, we can observe the following:

• Lagno has a positive score against Lei and Tan. Although a number of these games happened way back in the day. For example, her two wins over Lei happened back in 2018 in the World Chess Championship Knockout Tournament. While her wins against Tan happened in the 2016-2021 period. It is worth noting that Tan was the one who eliminated her in their quarterfinal match in the previous Candidates Cycle. ²⁶
• Lagno has a negative score against Koneru, Muzychuk, and Goryachkina. The last one is particularly surprising, given that Goryachkina is much younger.
• Lagno hasn’t played that many games against Vaishali and Salimova, just like most of the other participants.

All in all, despite the small rating difference I wouldn’t exactly put Lagno in the same category as Goryachkina and Lei. She doesn’t arrive in Toronto in the greatest of shapes and her age and nerves might be a detrimental factor. True, it is not impossible to imagine her winning the tournament if things go her way. But on average, I would expect her to end up in the middle of the tournament table.

It was hard to decide where exactly to put her. But ultimately, I do think Tan might have slightly better chances.

Zhongyi Tan

Strength/recent form

Zhongy Tan might be the most underrated and underestimated player in this tournament. For example, in a recent poll posted on the Twitter account Women’s Chess Coverage, no one picked Tan as her ultimate winner, which I genuinely found baffling – especially since Vaishali got 5 votes.

https://twitter.com/OnTheQueenside/status/1774098723758600484

After all – Tan has not only been one of the strongest female players in the world at least since 2017. But she is also the only participant in this tournament who has managed to become a World Champion, as she won the Women’s World Championship Knockout Tournament in 2017. True, her reign was not very long as she lost a very tight and close match to Wenjun Ju the next year. But we are still talking about the player of the World Chess Championship caliber.

As for her form – it is true that she “barely” qualified for the Candidates via FIDE Grand Swiss. But there she “delivered under pressure” and had a great tournament, scoring 7.5/11 and winning 8 rating points. And let’s not forget she barely missed the qualifying spot by ending in fourth place in the 2023 World Cup. Even an event such as the 19th Asian Games could be an indicator of good form despite the slight rating loss. If anything, scoring 7/9 after suffering an upset loss in the first round shows a lot of character and self-belief.

Nerves/Experience

As mentioned above, Zhongyi Tan is as experienced as it gets. World Championship Tournaments, World Championship Match, Candidates Tournaments. You name it – she has been there.

Tan also strikes me as a very stable player who is not particularly prone to being negatively affected by nerves. I think her performance in Grand Swiss 2023 alone is sufficient evidence, as it is not easy to deliver such a performance when you know it is your last chance for the Candidates.

True, she was bested by Ju Wenjun in the World Championship Match ²⁷ and also by Lei Tingjie in the finals of the last Candidates. I think that tells more about the qualities of her opponents rather than her inability to deal with nerves.

Head-to-head score against the other participants

Tan’s head-to-head scores against other participants are as follows:

• Tan – Goryachkina: +3-3=4
• Tan – Lei: +5-4=10
• Tan – Lagno: +2-4=4
• Tan – Koneru: +0-1=1
• Tan Muzychuk: +3-2=9
• Tan – Vaishali: +0-1=1
• Tan – Salimova: +0-0=0

From Tan’s head-to-head scores, we can observe:

• Tan seems to be a rather fighting player, as her scores are rather bloodthirsty and have featured many decisive games.
• She does have an equal score with Goryachkina – but she did eliminate her in the last Candidates Cycle.
• She does have a slight positive score against Lei, although she did get beaten by her in the final of the last Candidates Cycle.
• She does have a slight positive score against Anna Muzychuk and a negative score against Kateryna Lagno
• She has played only a few games against Salimova, Vaishali, and Koneru. And while it is expected when it comes to the first two, it is somewhat surprising in the case of the latter.

All in all, given her class, her experience, and her ability to play well under pressure, I think Tan will do well in this tournament. I think she has equally good chances as Koneru and Lagno. But I also – perhaps somewhat subjectively – feel she has a higher chance to “surprise” and go all the way. Which is why I have decided to put her in the third place in my prediction.

Anna Muzychuk

Strength/recent form

Anna Muzychuk has been one of the strongest female players in the world for many years.  ²⁸ She is one of only six women to break the 2600 rating barrier. ²⁹ She has been a constant contender in Women’s World Championship Cycles for more than a decade and came very close to winning it on several occasions.

With that being said, Muzychuk is another player whose peak happened way back in the past. Ever since April 2019, her rating has been sitting below 2550. The last few years, in particular, have been rather rough, as she dropped all the way to 2504 in March 2023, after a bad performance in the second leg of the 2023 Women’s Grand Prix Leg 2.

To be fair, Muzychuk must have been significantly impacted by the Russian invasion of her home country Ukraine. ³⁰

However, ever since that “historical low”, she has been climbing up the ranks again. In late 2023, she had a string of very good performances:

• FIDE Women’s World Cup 2023: won 3rd place, 6 rating points, and qualified for the Candidates
• European Women Club Cup: scored 5.5/7 without losses, won 4.30 rating points
• FIDE Women’s Grand Swiss 2023: scored 8/11, won 14 rating points, no losses

True, she did lose some rating in the German and Spanish leagues. But I am sure she will arrive in Toronto feeling rather good about her play in recent months.

Nerves/Experience

Just like everyone else apart from Vaishali and Salimova, Muzychuk has a ton of experience in playing at the elite level. She has already participated in numerous World Championship cycles/tournaments ³¹  and come very far in quite a few of them. She has won an individual gold medal at the Olympiad, World Rapid and Blitz championships, and numerous other events.

How this experience helps her deal with her nerves is a bit harder to tell. As usual, one could bring examples of her showcasing both good nerves (winning World Blitz and Rapid Championships, winning game three of her match against Tan in the Women’s World Championship Tournament 2017, eliminating Humphy Koneru in the tiebreak in their quarterfinal match of her previous Candidates) and “bad” nerves (losing to Tan in the tiebreak in Women’s World Championship Tournament 2017 and Candidates 2023).

If I had to guess, I would say her past experience would help her on this occasion and that she is more likely than not to not succumb to the pressure. Whether this is true – remains to be seen.

Head-to-head score against the other participants

Muzychuk’s head-to-head score against the other participants is, as follows:

• Muzychuk – Goryachkina: +1-1=9
• Muzychuk – Lei: +0-1=3
• Muzychuk – Lagno: +3-1=13
• Muzychuk – Koneru: +3-3=7
• Muzychuk – Tan: +2-3=9
• Muzychuk – Vaishali: +0-0=1
• Muzychuk – Salimova: +0-0=3

From Muzychuk’s head-to-head scores, we can observe:

• She is not quite as blood-thirsty as Tan, but her head-to-head scores do feature comparatively a big amount of decisive games.
• She has a positive score only against one player in the tournament.
• She has a negative score against both Lei and Tan and equal scores against Goryachkina and Koneru.
• Just like everyone else – she didn’t play many games against Vaishali and Salimova. Although she did get eliminated by the latter in the tiebreak in the semifinal of the last World Cup.

All in all, Anna Muzychuk is a different player to judge. Before I started writing this article, I considered her inferior to the five players above, but now I am no longer so sure. She is an incredibly talented player whose play (and rating) have been on an upward trajectory.  wouldn’t necessarily put her in the same category as Goryachkina and Lei, but I see no reason why her chances would be any worse than, say, Tan’s, Lagno’s, or Koneru’s.

I would be the happiest person in the world if I could put all these players in the same place. But since it is not how predictions work, I have decided to listen to my gut feeling, take a gamble, and put Muzychuk in the 5th place in my prediction.

Vaishali Rameshbabu

Strength/recent form

Vaishali Rameshbabu has been one of the strongest female players…

…well in the last year, to be completely honest.

Don’t get me wrong – she has always been a very strong player. But only in the last year did she make significant improvements and truly make a “giant leap” toward the world elite. Since May 2023, she increased her rating from 2418 up to 2497 (in December 2023).

Vaishali’s rating progress since January 2023. Source: Vaishali’s FIDE profile

This fantastic run included tremendous results at Qatar Masters and Women’s Grand Swiss, which brought her two GM norms and a place in the Candidates. She also managed to fulfill the final requirement for the GM title in January this year when she briefly crossed the 2500 rating mark in the live rating list after winning her first two games in the Elllobregat Open (although the event as a whole went rather poorly after that). Such a fantastic string of results/achievements has prompted many people to pinpoint Vaishali as the potential surprise of the tournament.

Nerves/Experience

On the other hand, Vaishali is very inexperienced when it comes to playing in events of this caliber. Not only will this be her first Candidates – but she also hasn’t participated in that many closed round robins. Especially featuring other top female players. Her experience in Prague might suggest this lack of experience might play a crucial role. ³²

With that being said – it doesn’t seem that lack of experience has had a negative effect on her nerves in the past. If anything, her win against Tan Zhongyi in the penultimate round of FIDE Grand Swiss demonstrated the opposite. Although it was one game in one event. Whether she will be able to maintain her composure in a more high-stress event – especially if things don’t start going her way, remains to be seen.

Head-to-head score against the other participants

Vaishali’s head-to-head score against the other participants is, as follows:

• Vaishali – Goryachkina: +0-0=3
• Vaishali – Lei: +0-0=0
• Vaishali – Lagno +0-1=1
• Vaishali – Koneru +0-0=1
• Vaishali – Zhongyi +1-0=1
• Vaishali – Muzychuk: +0-0=1
• Vaishali – Salimova +0-0=0

As expected, given that Vaishali is a relative newcomer to the elite scene, the number of games against the other participants is fairly limited. As mentioned above, she did beat Tan Zhongyi in the FIDE Grand Swiss – but whether she will be able to replicate that feat and do so consistently, remains to be seen.

All in all – despite her recent strides, I am not so quick to jump aboard the Vaishali “hype train”. First of all, her results in the aforementioned elllobregat Open and in the more recent Prague Challengers suggest some “correction” of the rating might be in the order after her recent string of good results.

But more importantly – despite all these successes – I still don’t consider her as strong as the 6 participants mentioned above. While she did beat Tan in a highly crucial encounter at the Grand Swiss, let’s not forget Tan employed a risky opening and played for a win with the Black pieces. Vaishali also got “clean-swept” by Mariya Muzychuk with the 2-0 score in the 2nd round of the Women’s World Cup 2023.

She is currently lagging around 50 points behind the next lowest-rated players – Tan and Muzychuk and is sitting in “only” the 15th place on the Woman rating list. She only recently briefly crossed the 2500 barrier, while the other players have been able to maintain the 2500+ rating for DECADES. While I do think she was severely underrated at 2400 – I don’t see why she would be considered to be seriously underrated at 2500 or so. After all, Vaishali is not THAT young ³³, as she was born in 2001.

Don’t get me wrong – I do think she is an amazing player who has a remote chance of doing well in the tournament if things go her way. But I think it is more likely than not that she will have a hard time. This is why I have decided to “adhere to the rating” and put her in the 7th place in my predictions. Above Salimova, but behind everyone else.

Sorry “experts”.

Nurgyul Salimova

Strength/recent form

Last, but not least, we have arrived at the final and the lowest-rated participant in the Candidates tournament.  Just like with Nijat Abasov in the Open section,  I think it is fair to say Salimova is objectively, the weakest player in the field, given that she is currently rated 2432 – 43 points lower than Vaishali and 88 points lower than Tan and Muzychuk.

True, her amazing performance in the Women’s World Cup 2023 did demonstrate she is capable of competing – and beating – the world’s best players. But let’s not forget World Cup is a fundamentally different kind of tournament compared to the Candidates. Besides, Salimova wasn’t able to demonstrate her superiority in the classical portion, given that she won her matches against Medina Warda Aulia, Polina Shuvalova, and Anna Muzychuk only in the tiebreak portion.

True, even after the World Cup, Salimova has had good performances in the European Team Championship 2023 (which Bulgaria ended up winning) and Reykjavik Open 2024, so she will surely arrive in Toronto in a good mood/form. However, I do feel no amount of good mood/form can compensate for the difference in playing strength.

And experience. This leads me to the following point.

Nerves/Experience

Just like Vaishali, Salimova has no experience playing events of this caliber. One could even make an argument she has even less experience since Vaishali did get invitations to some high-level closed events, such as Tata Steel 2023 or the aforementioned Prague Challengers 2023. ³⁴

On the other hand, her performance in the World Cup did indicate her nerves might not be affected by a lack of experience. In general, she strikes me as a rather solid and composed player, but we will see how things will play out in Toronto, this April.

Head-to-head score against the other participants

Salimova’s head-to-head score against the other participants is, as follows:

• Salimova – Goryachkina: +0-0=3
• Salimova – Lei: +0-0=0
• Salimova – Koneru: +0-0=0
• Salimova – Lagno: +0-0=0
• Salimova – Tan: +0-0=0
• Salimova – Muzychuk: +0-0=3
• Salimova – Vaishali: +0-0=0

As expected, Salimova has not played many games against other participants in the tournament. She has some experience against Goryachkina and Muzychuk since she faced them in the World Cup. But it was somewhat surprising to see “all zeroes” next to the name of every other player. In particular Vaishali, given that these two are comparatively close in age and given that they both revolved in the 2400 rating heights for a while.

All in all, despite her great performance in the World Cup and her strong display of nerves in that tournament, I still think she will have a hard time in Toronto, given her rating and lack of experience. Thus, I have decided to put her in the last place in my prediction.

My Prediction

1. Aleksandra Goryachkina
2. Tingjie Lei
3. Zhongyi Tan
4. Kateryna Lagno
5. Anna Muzychuk
6. Humphy Koneru
7. Vaishali Rameshbabu
8. Nurgyul Salimova

The post Everything You Need To Know About Women’s Candidates Tournament 2024 appeared first on Chessentials.

Introduction

On April 3rd, 2024, one of the most anticipated, exciting, and important chess tournaments of the year ¹ – will begin.

The Candidates Tournament 2024, in which some of the World’s best players ² will battle for the ultimate victory and the opportunity to challenge the current World Champion, Liren Ding, for the World Championship Title in a match later this year. 

Given the prestige and importance of this event, I thought it would be a nice idea to preview it and make a fool of myself by analyzing the players’ chances and predicting the outcome. 

I hope you will enjoy it and find it useful. Or at least retroactively laugh at my poor predictions later down the road when they all turn out to be completely wrong.

Candidates Tournament 2024

Regulations and Format

The Candidates Tournament 2024 will be held from April 3rd-April 22nd, 2024. For the very first time in history, ³ it will be held on North American soil – in the Great Hall in Toronto, Canada. Despite all the “hiccups” and “visa issues” along the way. ⁴

Like  every Candidates Tournament in the modern era, ⁵ the tournament will be held using the round-robin format. This means that every player will play two games against every other participant – one with White and one with Black,  ⁶ throughout 14 rounds.

(Official schedule of the Candidates Tournament. Source: Candidates Tournament 2024 Regulations )

The time control for the event will be 120 minutes for the first 40 moves, followed by an additional 30 minutes for the rest of the game. The players will also receive a 30-second increment per move – but only starting from move 41 (no increment until the first time control). ⁷ 

Just like in the 2022 edition, in the case of a tie for first place, additional tiebreak games will be played. ⁸ The tiebreak system for 2024 is a little bit complicated, but it essentially consists of additional rapid games – and then also blitz games, if required. It also does take the possibility of multiple players tying for the first place, in which case an entirely new round-robin tournament ⁹ will be played. ¹⁰ 

In contrast to the 2022 edition, where there was some ambiguity related to the importance of second place in the tournament due to Magnus Carlsen potentially not defending his title, ¹¹ this time it is clear that the first place in the tournament is all that matters, since Liren has already announced he is going to defend his title, later this year.

List of Participants

As mentioned above, a total of eight players will be participating in the Candidates Tournament 2024. Qualification to the tournament was prescribed by the Candidates Tournament 2024 Regulations, as follows:

8 players that qualified for the Candidates Tournament 2024 – and their qualification paths/criteria – are as follows:

• Ian Nepomniacthchi – runner-up in the 2023 World Chess Championship match
• Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa – runner-up in the Chess World Cup 2023
• Fabiano Caruana – 3rd place winner in the Chess World Cup 2023
• Nijat Abasov – 4th place winner in the Chess World Cup 2023. Do note that only three players from the World Cup were supposed to qualify for the Candidates. But since the winner of the World Cup 2023 – Magnus Carlsen – refused his “invitation” to the Candidates, the spot was automatically assigned to the 4th place winner – Abasov.
• Santos Gujrathi Vidit – winner of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2023
• Hikaru Nakamura – runner-up of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2023
• Gukesh Dommaraju – runner-up of the FIDE Circuit 2023. Since the winner of the circuit was Fabiano Caruana who already qualified via the World Cup, the spot was given to the runner-up – who was Gukesh – instead. You might also recall the race for the FIDE Circuit spot intensified at the very last minute, with Gukesh participating in several last-minute tournaments (London Classic, Chennai Grand Masters) in which he managed to overtake Anish Giri by a very narrow margin.
• Alireza Firouzja – player with the highest rating that met FIDE’s requirements on January 2024. I am sure many of you will recall that the race for the rating spot was even more last-minute and controversial than the race for the FIDE Circuit. This entire story goes way beyond the scope of this article, but in case you were living under a rock in December 2023, you can read this and this article summarizing some of the key points.

Assessment of the participants’ chances

After introducing you to the regulations and the players, the time has come to make a fool out of myself by estimating each player’s chances and predicting the final standings of the tournament.

In my analysis, I will be focusing on three parameters:

• Strength/Recent Form – I thought of considering these separately, but have ultimately decided to couple them together. Not only because I feel someone’s chess strength is closely connected to their form. But also because I realized I would not be comfortable judging the chess strengths of these players and comparing them to each other ¹²
• Experience 

• Head-to-head score against the other participants

Fabiano Caruana

Strength/Form

I hope Fabiano Caruana doesn’t need a particular introduction. For more than a decade, he has been considered to be one of the strongest chess players in the world. Many regard him as the 2nd best player of our generation. He came close to rivaling Magnus Carlsen on several occasions – most notably in 2018, just before their World Championship Match, when the difference between the two consisted of just a few rating points. No other player in the tournament came even remotely close to Caruana’s peak rating of 2844 ELO.

Caruana has not only historically been the 2nd best player in the world. But he is also entering the Candidates tournament as such. He is currently the only person – apart from Magnus Carlsen – to belong to the exclusive 2800+ ELO Club, with his rating sitting comfortably at 2803,2.

Such a high rating is the consequence of the fantastic form Caruana has been for the larger part of 2023. He won several elite events in which he participated (Superbet Chess Classic 2023, US Chess Championship 2023, Sinquefield Cup 2023) and had a very good performance in the World Cup 2023 (3rd place, securing the qualification spot) and Norway Chess 2023 (2nd place) and reasonable performance in FIDE Grand Swiss (+4-1=6, 7/11) and American Cup (3rd place).

Put simply, in the last year, Caruana hasn’t had even a mediocre – let alone a bad – event, so it is not a surprise his rating has once again skyrocketed.

(Caruana’s 2-year rating graph: Source: Caruana’s FIDE Profile)

This is not that surprising considering Caruana’s own admission that his motivation for chess has returned after it dipped down in the Covid/post-COVID period. I also think the fact that Magnus Carlsen will not be the one awaiting you in the match for the title will serve as an additional motivation boost ¹³, since this might be a unique opportunity to win that coveted title.

Experience

Caruana is not only incredibly strong – but he is also a very experienced player. This will already be his 5th Candidates Tournament and he also has experience when it comes to playing for the title of the World Champion. 

Head-to-head against the other participants

Caruana’s head-to-head score against the other participants in the tournament is, as follows:

• Caruana vs. Nepomniacthchi: +1-1=13
• Caruana vs. Nakamura: +8-9=33
• Caruana vs. Firouzja: +5-1=6
• Caruana vs. Vidit: +0-0=1 
• Caruana vs. Praggnanandhaa: +1-0=3
• Caruana vs. Gukesh: +1-1=1
• Caruana vs. Abasov: +1-1=0 ¹⁴

From Caruana’s head-to-head scores, we can observe the following:

• there is a staggering difference in the number of games Caruana has played against Nepomniachtchi, Nakamura and Firouzja and the rest of the field. I was extremely surprised by the fact he has only played a single classical game against Vidit. 
• Caruana only has a positive score against two players in the field – Praggnannadhaa (whom he beat in Tata Steel 2022 when Prag was younger – and weaker) and Firouzja – who does seem to be his “client”. 
• Caruana might experience some difficulty against Nakamura, who has beaten him in their last three classical encounters – at FIDE Grand Swiss, Norway Chess 2023 and in the 2nd half of the previous Candidates Tournament. Although it has to be noted that Fabi was Black in all these games and that he also scored a victory with White in the 1st half of that very same Candidates Tournament.
• His loss against Gukesh happened at the 2022 Chess Olympiad where Gukesh played the tournament of his life and where Caruana wasn’t at his best, while he beat him at Tata Steel 2023. I don’t think these games will be of that much relevance in their upcoming encounter.
• Caruana hasn’t played any games against the other participants in 2024, since he skipped Tata Steel Masters and since none of them ¹⁵ participated in the recently concluded American Cup 2023.

Thus, even though head-to-head results are not particularly in Caruana’s favour, due to the limited sample of games against half of the field, the limited amount of games played against the other participants very recently, and due to the fact the Candidates is a completely new tournament, I do think these “statistics” are not that relevant. 

Given Caruana’s “pedigree”, his recent form and experience, it is hard not to consider him as one of the main favourites of the event. 

Ian Nepomniacthchi

Strength/Form

Just like Fabiano Caruana, Ian Nepomniachtchi has been one of the best players in the world for quite some time now. He is capable of beating anyone in the world. At his peak, Nepo is perhaps even more scary than Caruana. ¹⁶ Not only is he a rather aggressive player – he also has the tendency to move very fast, putting a lot of pressure on the opponents, both on the board and on the clock.

When he is “on”, this can work wonderfully – which was especially apparent in the last Candidates tournament, which he won in a very convincing manner. Nepo is the type of “streaky” player who can suddenly start amassing wins and “running away” with the tournament.

On the other hand, due to his style, clock handling and emotional approach to the game, Nepo can equally easily go on a “negative” streak if things are not working out for him. Historically speaking, he has always been struggling with consistency, which is why his historical peak is much lower than, say, Caruana’s. As a matter of fact, he has never crossed the elite 2800 rating barrier, with his peak rating standing at 2795. Put simply, his level of play and stability varies a lot, which was very apparent in his recent World Chess Championship match against Ding.

Nepo’s form has also been far from stellar in recent times. Even though he hasn’t played a lot after his match against Ding, the tournaments he did play in didn’t quite go his way, to put it mildly:

• Superbet Chess Classic 2023: 3.5/9, lost 15 rating points ¹⁷
• FIDE World Cup 2023: Eliminated in round 5 by Vidit in tiebreak, lost 8 classical rating points
• Tata Steel Masters 2024: 6.5/13, lost 10 rating points

Experience

On the other hand, Nepo is one of the more experienced players in this – relatively young – field. Given his experience in the World Chess Championship matches and his back-to-back wins in the previous two Candidates, his fans can hope he will be able to utilize his experience to find his best form and go for a “three-peat”. 

Head-to-head against the other participants

Nepo’s head-to-head score against the other participants in the tournament is, as follows:

• Nepomniachtchi vs. Caruana: +1-1=13
• Nepomniachtchi vs. Nakamura: +2-3=7
• Nepomniachtchi vs. Firouzja: +4-3=2
• Nepomniachtchi vs. Vidit +2-0=5
• Nepomniachtchi vs. Praggnanandhaa: +0-0=2
• Nepomniachtchi vs. Gukesh: +0-1=1
• Nepomniachtchi vs. Abasov: +0-0=1

From Nepo’s head-to-head scores, we can observe the following:

• just like Caruana, Nepo has played a lot of games with three participants in the tournament, and very few games with four participants in the tournament
• Nepo doesn’t have an overwhelming plus score against any of the participants (his +2 score against Vidit can hardly be characterized as such)
• Nepo doesn’t have an overwhelming negative score against any of the participants, either.
• Nepo hasn’t played that many games against the other participants in recent times

In Nepo’s case, I would attribute even less significance to the head-to-head scores than in Caruana’s case. I do think his result will mainly depend on his form in the tournament. On the basis of the recent results, his fans don’t have a lot of ground for optimism. But given his experience and the fact he will probably be extremely motivated, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he just wins the entire event, given how strong he is at his very best.

All in all, I think he will do either very well, or rather poorly. This is the main reason why I have decided to come up with two predictions instead of just one at the end of this article.

Hikaru Nakamura

Strength/Form

Hikaru Nakamura has been a well-established elite player for more than a decade. Apart from Fabiano Caruana, he is the only player who firmly held 2nd place on the rating list –  reaching a peak of 2816 in October 2015. ¹⁸ I do think he is one of those players who had ¹⁹ World Championship potential in terms of pure raw talent/chess-playing strength. ²⁰

With that being said, in recent years ²¹ Nakamura has “semi-retired” from competitive chess and significantly reduced his activity in order more time for his streaming career. One would expect this change of priorities to negatively affect his results – as well as his rating. Whenever he comes out to play, people predict his lack of practice and lack of hours due to streaming obligations is going to tell.

Yet miraculously, nothing of the sort has happened. Nakamura has not only managed to maintain his level – but even improved upon it. Ever since 2022, he has been very successful in virtually every event he participated in:

• FIDE Grand Prix 2022: participated in leg 1 and leg 3, won 25 rating points, qualified for the Candidates
• FIDE Candidates 2022: scored 7.5/14, won 8 rating points, almost won 2nd place and qualified for the World Chess Championship match
• American Cup 2023: won the event after beating Semian and Dominguez in classical portion and So in the tiebreak. Won 7 rating points. 
• Norway Chess 2023: Won the event and 12 rating points.
• FIDE World Cup 2023: Perhaps the only event that can be labelled as “unsuccessful” in the two-year period. After beating Karthik in the rapid tiebreak and Gledura in the classical portion, Nakamura was eliminated by Praggnandhaa in the rapid tiebreak. Lost 7 classical rating points.
• Qatar Masters 2023: Scored 6.5/9, lost -2.40 rating points. Not a great event, but not a disastrous one, either.
• FIDE Grand Swiss 2023: Scored 8/11, won 10 rating points, qualified for the Candidates.

This series of great results increased his rating to 2789, which is currently sufficient for the 3rd place in the world ²²

(Nakamura’s rating progress since January 2023. Source: Nakamura’s FIDE profile)

Thus, it is fair to say Nakamura comes to the Candidates in great shape. Even though he has played only 3 classical games this year, his comparative lack of practice didn’t seem to be an issue in the past – and there is no reason to assume it will be an issue this time. ²³ 

I do feel he will be very motivated for this event since becoming a World Champion would further improve his own “brand”. And playing against Ding Liren is arguably the chance of a lifetime to win that title!

Experience

Nakamura is not only very strong, but he is also very experienced. As one of the older participants, he already has a number of elite events under his belt. He has also participated in two Candidates tournaments – back in 2016 ²⁴ and in the most recent one in 2022, where only the last-round loss to Ding prevented him from winning the 2nd place and qualifying for the match against Nepomniachtchi. 

Given he already mentioned that he used his negative result from 2016 to approach 2022 differently, we can say he learned from his experience. How much of a role it will play this time – remains to be seen.

Head-to-head against the other participants

Nakamura’s head-to-head score against the other participants in the tournament is, as follows:

• Nakamura vs. Caruana: +9-8=33
• Nakamura vs. Nepomniachtchi: +3-2=7
• Nakamura vs. Firouzja: +1-0=2
• Nakamura vs. Vidit: +0-0=2
• Nakamura vs. Praggnananadhaa: +0-0=2
• Nakamura vs. Gukesh: +1-0=0
• Nakamura vs. Abasov +1-0=0

From Nakamura’s head-to-head scores, we can observe the following:

• Naka is the only player who has a positive score with 5 of the other participants (albeit a relatively “small” one)
• he has played a lot of games against Caruana and Nepo and very few games against the rest of the field. I was somewhat surprised by the relatively low amount of encounters he has had with Firouzja. 
• it has to be said that he hasn’t played against Nepomniachtchi a lot in recent years. Their last two classical games happened in the 2022 Candidates. Hikaru had some chances in his White game, while the second game featured the disgraceful “Berlin” draw
• his recent games against the other participants do give him a lot of reason for optimism. As mentioned above, he has beaten Caruana in their last three encounters – although he had White pieces in all these games. He has also beaten Gukesh and Firouzja relatively recently in Norway Chess 2023. And most recently, he won a game against Nijat Abasov in the German Bundesliga where he blundered in the opening and was just a pawn down. ²⁵

All in all, I think Nakamura’s recent form, his positive head-to-head score against the other participants (especially in recent times), the fact he has done well in almost every post-epidemic event, and his very solid and reliable opening repertoire will outweigh his comparative “lack of practice”. I don’t see a reason not to predict he will again do well. 

With that being said, I don’t quite see him winning the Candidates, simply because I do consider Caruana and Nepo to be stronger when they are “on”. I have, therefore, predicted him to win the 2nd or the 3rd place in the event. Although it wouldn’t surprise me if he did go all the way, given all the nerves involved and his “I don’t care” attitude. ²⁶

Alireza Firouzja

Strength/Form

Alireza Firouzja is widely regarded as one of the greatest talents our game has ever seen. Even though he is only 21, he has been a top player for at least 5 years – ever since he first broke the 2700 rating barrier at the age of 16. He is also the youngest player in history to break the 2800 barrier – a feat he managed to achieve in December 2021, at the age of 18. Given all the accomplishments, it is not surprising he has been regarded as “The Chosen One” – or the legitimate successor of Magnus Carlsen.

However, this is easier said than done. So far, Firouzja hasn’t come close to participating in a World Championship Match. True, he did qualify for the previous Candidates tournament, but with the final result of 6/13, he was nowhere close the first two places.

In recent times, a lot of questions regarding Firouzja’s motivation/dedication have appeared in chess circles. The truth is – in last few years, Alireza has played very little classical chess. After achieving the rating of 2804 in December 2021, Firouzja wouldn’t play a single tournament until Candidates 2022 – which happened in June. ²⁷

A similar story happened in 2023, as Firouzja didn’t play a single classical game in the first six months of the year. Furthermore, the events he participated in in the second half of the year didn’t quite go the way he would like. After a reasonable performance in Superbet Chess Classic in June, Alireza would have a pretty bad Norway Chess 2023, and disastrous Grand Swiss 2023 and Sinequfield Cup 2023.

The rating losses in the last two events seriously jeopardized his rating spot/participation in the Candidates, which ultimately prompted him to organize the aforementioned matches in Chartres/play in an open tournament in Rouen and cause a fair bit of drama at the end of last year.

On the other hand, events in December did demonstrate that Alireza is still pretty much thinking about chess, despite the fact he has also started studying fashion design in Paris in the meantime. In his most recent event in Tata Steel 2024, he did do reasonably well, scored 7.5/13, played some uncompromising, fighting chess, and reminded us of “the Alireza of old”, at times. However, his uncompromising style is often a double-edged blade, as he also suffered some pretty bad losses, such as in his games against Vidit or Ju Wenjun.

Experience

Even though he is still extremely young, I think we have to count Alireza among the more experienced participants. Not only has he been a part of the elite for longer than, say, Gukesh, Praggnanandhaa – and even Vidit. But apart from Caruana, Nakamura, and Nepomniachtchi, he is the only player who has already participated in a Candidates tournament.

His fans can hope he has learned from his experience and that he will use the knowledge to have a better result this time. 

Head-to-head against the other participants

Firouzja’s head-to-head score against the other participants in the tournament is, as follows:

• Firouzja vs. Caruana: +1-5=6
• Firouzja vs. Nepomniachtchi: +3-4=2
• Firouzja vs. Nakamura: +0-1=2
• Firouzja vs. Vidit: +0-2=1
• Firouzja vs. Praggnanandhaa: +0-0=2
• Firouzja vs. Gukesh: +1-1=1
• Firouzja vs. Abasov: +2-0=1

From his head-to-head scores, we can observe:

• Firouzja’s head-to-head score doesn’t inspire much confidence. He has a negative score against four other participants and has been particularly struggling against Caruana, who not only has a large plus score against him but who has also beaten him twice with Black (!!) in their most recent encounters – at Norway Chess 2023 and Sinquefield Cup 2023. 
• He also lost quite badly to Vidit in Tata Steel Masters 2024
• Firouzja also lost his “mini-matches” to Nepomniachtchi and Nakamura in the last Candidates tournament
• He does have a positive score against Abasov and an equal score against two other “youngsters”

All in all, Firouzja’s placement was incredibly hard to predict. On one hand, his form hasn’t been stellar in the last few months – and his mind seemingly wasn’t fully focused on chess. On the other hand, everybody knows he is an enormous talent with enormous potential who already has a lot of experience playing at the top level. Given that he has been seemingly fully focusing on chess again, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to assume he might be the “surprise” of the tournament.

After some thinking, however, I have decided to put him in the middle of the tournament table. I do think his sharp and uncompromising style will lead to a number of decisive games – but I also think he will experience some bad losses because of it. Even though we shouldn’t read too much into the results of Tata Steel, I can envision his Candidates’ tournament following a similar trajectory. 

Although I can also envision him just winning a bunch of games and qualifying for the match if he brings his absolute best.

Santosh Gujrathi Vidit

Strength/Form

Santos Gujrathi Vidit is a unique player in the field, in the sense that he might be the only player ²⁸ who hasn’t had a meteoric rise to the heights of top-level chess. Even though he was the World U14 Champion, he became the grandmaster at the “late” age of 19. ²⁹ And even though he broke the 2700 rating barrier at the age of 23 and has been floating in the 2700-2730 range ever since – he hasn’t managed to break to the very elite and participate in that many top-level events.

Until recently. 

With a series of good results in 2023, Vidit not only reached the peak rating of 2747. But also managed to qualify for the Candidates for the very first time in his life – at the age of 29 – with a fantastic performance at the FIDE Grand Swiss 2023. 

Vidit also continued his form at the beginning of 2024, with a very good performance at Tata Steel 2024. True, his most recent event in Prague didn’t go that well, to put it mildly. But I wouldn’t pay to much significance to it, since his mind was almost certainly on the Candidates already. 

Therefore, I think Vidit is coming to the Candidates in good form and his motivation must be at an all-time high.

Experience

Despite his age and the fact he is among the older participants in the tournament, Vidit doesn’t have that much experience playing at this level. Not only will this be his first Candidates tournament, but I was also unable to find many top-level closed round-robin events where he participated³⁰ (apart from Tata Steel 2019, 2022, and 2024 and several issues of Prague Masters). ³¹

Head-to-head against the other participants

Vidit’s head-to-head score against the other participants in the tournament is, as follows:

• Vidit vs. Caruana: +0-0=1
• Vidit vs. Nepomniachtchi: +0-2=5
• Vidit vs. Nakamura: +0-0=2
• Vidit vs. Firouzja: +2-0=1
• Vidit vs. Praggnanandhaa: +3-3=1
• Vidit vs. Gukesh: +0-0=2
• Vidit vs. Abasov: +0-2=1

From the head-to-head scores, we can observe the following:

• as indirectly hinted above, despite being a 2700+ player for 6 years, Vidit has played a remarkably small amount of games against top players such as Caruana and Nakamura. 
• I was also surprised to see only 2 classical games against his compatriot Gukesh – but also how bloodthirsty his battles with Prag have been, considering the relatively “solidity” of both players
• Vidit has had good results against Firouzja in the past, but he has also suffered some painful losses against Abasov – most notably in the World Cup 2023. This prevented Vidit from securing the Candidates spot at the time. We will see how relevant these past scores will be in the upcoming event, but they might play a psychological role.

All in all, despite his great preparation and impressive and inspiring work ethic that allowed him to achieve the greatest success of his career relatively late, I think players such as Caruana, Nepo and Nakamura are stronger and more experienced. And that “youngsters” such as Gukesh, Firouzja or Praggnannadhaa are more likely to be the “surprise” of the tournament. 

I am also a bit unsure how well will Vidit deal with the tension. In the past, he did seem to collapse under pressure, as his aforementioned game against Abasov, or his most recent last-round loss against Wei Yi at Tata Steel demonstrate. ³²

Thus, all things considered, have decided to put Vidit on the 6th place in my prediction. This may seem a bit harsh, but I would be genuinely surprised to see him in the upper half of the tournament table.

Whether this statement will make me like an absolute fool after the tournament, remains to be seen.

Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu 

Strength/Form

We will continue our exploration of the “Indian trio” by taking a closer look at the 2nd youngest participant in this Candidates tournament, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu. Considering how long he has been around and how well-known he is, it is easy to forget Prag is only 19. 

However, despite the fact he became the International Master at the age of 10 and the 2nd youngest GM at the age of 12, ³³Prag’s rise to the top wasn’t as meteoric and sudden as one would expect. Back in 2020 – just before the pandemic – he was “only” rated at 2600. And even though he did “explode” to a certain extent in the post-COVID years, he was struggling to break the magical 2700 barrier and seemed to be somewhat overshadowed by the likes of Erigaisi and Gukesh. Not to mention Firouzja. ³⁴ 

This all changed in the second half of 2023 when Prag suddenly started breaking through. First, he finally broke the 2700 barrier with a fantastic performance at the Dr.Hetenyi Geza Super GM Memorial. He followed that up with a historic, remarkable performance at the World Cup 2023, where he reached the final after eliminating Lagarde, Navara, Nakamura (!), Berkes, Erigaisi, and Caruana, gaining an additional 20 rating points and qualifying for the Candidates.

His successful performances in the Spanish League and Tata Steel Masters 2024 further elevated his rating to an all-time high of  2747 and further complicating the eternal battle for the Indian number one. 

(Praggnanandhaa’s rating progress since January 2023. Source: Prag’s FIDE profile)

Prag also performed very well at the recently concluded Prague Masters 2024,³⁵ where he scored 5/9  and finished ahead of Gukesh and Vidit. He is, therefore, entering the Candidates in very good form and will surely be motivated to make the most of this opportunity.

Experience

On the other hand, due to his youth and the fact he has only recently increased his rating to the top 20 level, Prag has had limited experience in top classical events and this is also his very first Candidates. As we have seen with Alireza in 2022 – this inexperience might play a role. Although one could also make an argument “The Indian school of chess” is much less prone to tilting and playing bullet until 6 am during such an important event. 

Prag has always struck me as an incredibly mature and composed person. He also seems to be able to deal with the pressure extremely well, as his fantastic World Cup run demonstrates. We will see whether his composure and nerves will be able to compensate for the comparative lack of experience. And whether he will be able to display the same level he displayed in the World Cup/recent months.

Head-to-head against the other participants

Praggnanandhaa’s head-to-head score against the other participants in the tournament is, as follows:

• Praggnananadhaa vs. Caruana: +0-1=3
• Praggnanandhaa vs. Nepomniachtchi: +0-0=2
• Praggnanandhaa vs. Nakamura: +0-0=2
• Praggnanandhaa vs. Firouzja: +0-0=2
• Praggnanandhaa vs. Vidit: +3-3=1
• Praggnannadhaa vs. Gukesh: +2-2=3
• Praggnananadhaa vs. Abasov: +0-0=0

From the head-to-head scores, we can observe the following:

• As expected, due to his limited experience, Prag has played very few games against most of the other participants in this event. He has never played a single classical game against Abasov.
• The notable exceptions are his compatriots Vidit and Gukesh. I was surprised to see so many decisive games between these players. I guess it shows there is a fierce rivalry between every camaraderie. ³⁶

All things considered, I have decided to pick Prag as the potential “dark horse” of the tournament. I do feel he might still be somewhat “underrated” and not lacking in pure chess-playing strength behind Caruana, Nepo, or Nakamura. I think his play has matured a lot and that he has become incredibly tough to beat, as his recent streak of 47 undefeated games demonstrates.

I do not quite think he has it in him to go all the way. But I most certainly see him in the upper half of the tournament table. Although the possibility of him winning shouldn’t be completely ruled out.

Gukesh Dommaraju

Strength/Form

Even though he is one year younger than his compatriot Pragnnanadhaa, Gukesh has arguably had a more meteoric rise to the world’s top. 

Even though he has been a child prodigy, a young GM, and all that jazz, Gukesh first made his name to the wider audience with his remarkable performance at the Chennai Olympiad 2022. Apart from securing him an individual gold medal, this result also enabled him to cross the 2700 rating barrier for the first time. Ever since, he has firmly established himself as one of the best players in the world, peaking at 2758 and overtaking Vishy Anand as the new Indian number 1 for a brief period.

True, after this peak, Gukesh did experience a certain dip in form (and rating) ³⁷. In November and December 2023, he lost almost 40 rating points and dropped all the way to 2720, placing his participation in the Candidates into question. Only the last-minute effort and good performance in the Chennai Masters at the end of last year enabled him to snatch the Grand Circuit spot from Anish Giri.

It seems that this good result and qualification for the Candidates renewed his vigor/passion/motivation. Gukesh had a fantastic tournament at Tata Steel 2024, gaining 17 rating points and coming close to winning the entire thing. After picking a few additional points in Bundesliga, he is currently sitting at 2747 ELO – the same rating as his compatriots Vidit and Prag. ³⁸

Thus, it seems Gukesh is back to his “old self” and fully ready for the Candidates.

Experience

Just like Prag – one thing Gukesh doesn’t have going his way is the experience. Even though he has reached 2700 sooner and participated in more elite events, I think this difference is negligible – especially since Gukesh wasn’t as active/successful in online events such as the Champions Chess Tour, compared to Prag.

As mentioned previously, it is a big question how relevant of a factor this is. But given that Gukesh is even younger than Prag, I wouldn’t be surprised if he succumbs to the pressure to the same extent Alireza succumbed back in 2022.

Head-to-head against the other participants

Gukesh’s head-to-head score against the other participants in the tournament is, as follows:

• Gukesh vs. Caruana: +1-1=1
• Gukesh vs. Nepomniachtchi: +1-0=1
• Gukesh vs. Nakamura: +0-1=0
• Gukesh vs. Firouzja: +1-1=1
• Gukesh vs. Vidit: +0-0=2
• Gukesh vs. Praggnananadhaa: +2-2=3
• Gukesh vs. Abasov: +0-0=1

In order not to repeat myself, I will merely remark that Gukesh has not played many games against the other participants in the tournament and that his clashes with Prag have been incredibly bloodthirsty so far. However, it is hard to say how relevant all this will be, given that the Candidates will be a completely new tournament with an unprecedented amount of pressure. 

All in all, trying to predict how Gukesh would do was a particularly difficult task, given his youth, potential, and inexperience. Ultimately, I have decided to rate his chances lower compared to the “big three” (Caruana, Nepo, and Nakamura), the other two youngsters (Firouzja and Prag), but higher compared to Vidit and Abasov. 

Comparison with Prag was in particular, very challenging. But ultimately I have decided to give preference to Prag simply because of the nerves/pressure factor. I could remember a few instances where Gukesh was failed by his nervous system – most notably against Abdusattorov at the Chennai Olympiad 2022. But also against Wei Yi in the tiebreak of this year’s Tata Steel, to a certain extent. 

Given his youth, certain volatility, and very uncompromising approach, I feel there is a higher probability of him “going down in flames” compared to some other players. 

But whatever the case, one thing is certain – it will be extremely interesting to follow his games.

Nijat Abasov

Strength/Form

Last, but not least, we have arrived at the final and the lowest-rated participant in the Candidates tournament, Nijat Abasov. Even if you are not a big fan of my joke in the introduction,³⁹ I am sure you will agree with my evaluation that Abasov is, objectively, the weakest player in the field, given that his peak rating of 2679 is far away from the CURRENT rating of all the other players and that he has never crossed the 2700-mark. ⁴⁰ 

True, his performance in the World Cup has demonstrated that rating is not everything and that Abasov can hold his own against the world’s very best. And that he also has very good nerves in high-pressure situations. 

But one could also make an argument this performance had little to do with classical chess, given that he won most of his matches in tiebreaks. And that the pressure was mostly on his higher-rated opponents, while he barely had anything to lose. ⁴¹

On the other hand, a lot of water has passed under the bridge since World Cup 2023. Ever since, Abasov’s form has been far from stellar, to put it mildly. In recent months, he has been “bleeding rating” on all fronts. Since November 2023, he has lost almost 50 rating points and is currently sitting at 2632 ELO, which is sufficient for the 110th place in the world.

(Abasov’s rating progress since January 2023. Source: Abasov’s FIDE profile)

Experience

Abasov is also not faring that well in the “experience” department. This will not only be his very first Candidates – but virtually his first-ever top event. He has very limited experience playing against top players – especially in events where they have been able to specifically prepare for him for many months. One would think superior preparation is something that distinguishes 2700+ and 2600+ players, although we will see how much of a role it will play.

Head-to-head against the other participants

One thing Abasov has going his way is the head-to-head score with other participants, which is as follows: 

• Abasov vs. Caruana: +1-1=1
• Abasov vs. Nepomniachtchi: +0-0=1
• Abasov vs. Nakamura: +0-1=0
• Abasov vs. Firouzja: +0-2=1
• Abasov vs. Vidit: +2-0=1
• Abasov vs. Praggnananadhaa: +0-0=0
• Abasov vs. Gukesh: +0-0=1

A couple of observations:

• Abasov has demonstrated he can hold his own against top players. In the World Cup, he beat both Vidit and Caruana in classical games
• The number of games he has played against top players is fairly limited, though.
• Most of these games happened in events such as World Cup, FIDE Grand Swiss or German Bundesliga, where time for preparation is rather limited
• His most recent games against the other participants – the one against Firouzja from FIDE Grand Swiss 2023 and the one against Nakamura from Bundesliga 2024, don’t give him much reason for optimism. The latter one was especially painful, considering Abasov had a clear extra pawn after Nakamura mixed up the move order in the opening, as mentioned previously.

Thus, when you combine Abasov’s playing strength, recent form, and lack of experience, it is hard to imagine him not coming up last in this tournament. Even if he manages to repeat his form from the World Cup we take the whole “he-plays-without-pressure-while-others-have-to-score-points-against-him” point into consideration. 

After all – you might recall that Kiril Alekseenko barely managed to avoid this fate in the 2020-2021 Candidates – and he was much less of an underdog. ⁴² 

My Predictions

Variation A: Caruana in form, Nepo out of form

1. Fabiano Caruana
2. Hikaru Nakamura
3. Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
4. Alireza Firouzja
5. Dommaraju Gukesh
6. Ian Nepomniachtchi
7. Vidit Santosh Gujrathi
8. Nijat Abasov

Variation B: Nepo in-form

1. Ian Nepomniachtchi
2. Fabiano Caruana
3. Hikaru Nakamura
4. Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
5. Alireza Firouzja
6. Dommaraju Gukesh
7. Vidit Santos Gujrathi
8. Nijat Abasov

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