Introduction
In 3 days, on 9th November 2018, World Champion Magnus Carlsen will sit at the board and defend his title for the fourth time. His challenger will be Fabiano Caruana, who, after falling short in the last round of the 2016 Candidates, managed to win the 2018 Candidates and qualify for the title match.
Although every World Championship match is highly anticipated, before the Carlsen-Caruana clash the chess world is particularly restless. In contrast to the previous World Championship matches against Anand in 2013 and 2014 and against Karjakin in 2016, this time there is no doubt participants in the match are the two strongest players in the world. Caruana’s results in 2018 have been probably even better than Carlsen’s.
Also, the rating gap between Magnus and the challenger has never been lower – just three points in Carlsen’s favour. That’s why nobody dares to predict the winner – Magnus is not a heavy favourite.
If he is a favourite at all.
There are many questions left unanswered. Will Caruana be able to maintain his excellent form? Has Magnus lost his motivation? Will he be able to fend off Caruana’s excellent opening preparation, which posed him some problems in the past? Will Magnus’ experience matter at all? Will his greater strength in faster time controls prove vital in the tiebreaks?
I will try to answer these questions and offer my two percents in the course of this World Championship Match preview.
The chess aspect of the match
Let’s start with the comparison of the chess factors I consider relevant for the outcome of the match: head to head score, form/recent results and player strength in faster time controls.
H2H score
Carlsen and Caruana have played 33 classical games against each other. The score is +10=18-5 in Carlsen’s favour (+5=10-2 with the White pieces and +5-8=3 with the Black pieces).
(Source: Wikipedia – World Championship Match 2018)
Although H2H scores are indicative, they aren’t 100% reliable. Raw numbers usually don’t give the full context – Caruana was a late bloomer of a sort who reached his full potential later than other chess prodigies.
However, if we look at the recent games, we obtain the same result. In 2018, the players played four games against each other.
The first encounter happened at the start of the year, in the Wijk Aan Zee tournament, when Caruana was not yet the challenger:
After this relatively colourless encounter, the players clashed again in the Grenke Tournament, just a couple of days after Caruana won the Candidates in Berlin:
2 months after, Carlsen managed to draw the first blood, on his home soil:
Finally, the most recent encounter happened approximately two months before the match:
On the basis of these four games, we might conclude Carlsen is sort of difficult opponent for Caruana. True, he had three Whites in four games, but he scored his only win with the Black pieces, and in two other games he obtained a serious advantage.
Thus, even in 2018, the champion has managed to demonstrate superiority in mutual encounters.
But not in classical tournaments. Which leads me to the next point.
Form/recent results
In 2018, we have had the unique opportunity to witness the challenger and champion clash in the same tournament several times before the match. We have analyzed the games above and seen Carlsen came out on top. However, despite the success in their individual encounters, Caruana was the one who did better in tournament standings.
He overshadowed the champion on every occasion. In Grenke and Norway Chess tournament, Caruana was clear first, with Carlsen coming in second. In Sinquefield Cup 2018, they were joint winners after Carlsen suggested a share of the prize instead of a three-fold tiebreaker (Levon Aronian was also a part of this triangle).
In addition to that, Caruana also had a strong performance on the Olympiad (the most recent event he participated in – Carlsen didn’t play). On the other hand, Carlsen’s last performance before the match, at the European Club Cup was not inspiring – he won just one game (out of five) and was clearly losing against Ding Liren (had he lost that game, he would have entered the match as the World Number two).
It is true that Magnus was probably already thinking about the match (and hiding his preparation). But a small „crisis“ in his play has been evident for quite some time now. He is not the same dominant force he used to be in 2015 and 2016. Even Hakon Hapnes Strand, his personal friend, wrote Magnus has been on the decline.
Sure, match play is one thing, tournaments something completely different. In 2016, Karjakin was far from the most successful tournament player, yet the match was extremely close. Still, tournament results are indicative – there is a reason ELO difference is so small.
Faster time controls
The tiebreak system for the World Championship envisions rapid and blitz games if the score is drawn after 12 classical games. The strength of the players under faster time controls is, therefore, another important factor.
And another factor in Carlsen’s favour. Even though his results in classical tournaments in recent years haven’t been dominant, in speed chess he is a king without equals. He was the Blitz and Rapid World Champion at one moment, he destroyed Ding Liren +6-1=5 in the blitz in 2017, he conquered the Chesscom 2017 speed championship and he is even bullying the competition in Lichess Titled Bullet Arenas.
On the other hand, faster time controls (especially blitz) have always been regarded as Caruana’s weakness. He is simply nowhere near Magnus when it comes to speed. Almost 200 points in blitz rating difference is a good indicator (2939 vs 2767 in Caruana’s favour).
Therefore, although Maxim Dlugy in the latest edition of New In Chess tries to make an argument for Caruana’s case (essentially stating that in short tiebreaker everything is possible), I am not particularly convinced. In the match against Karjakin Carlsen demonstrated tiebreak system suits him – and Karjakin is better at rapid and blitz than Caruana. Of course, there is no guarantee, but I think Carlsen’s chances increase if the classical portion of the match ends in a tie.
The non-chess aspect of the match
Experience
In his My Great Predecessors and On Modern Chess series, Garry Kasparov repeatedly stated how important match experience on the top level is. He wrote his inexperience (and not his chess playing strength) was the main reason behind his failure in the 1984 match (the 1985 match indirectly proved he and Karpov were equally strong at a time).
Caruana’s lack of experience in World Championship matches might prove an important factor. Carlsen’s battles against Anand and Karjakin should account to something.
Composure/nerves
Before the previous match against Karjakin, I was virtually the only one who warned he might have psychological problems in case Karjakin puts a stubborn defence. This is exactly what happened – after failing to do anything with several promising positions, Carlsen played too rashly and recklessly and had to salvage the match 3 games before the end.
Four games we have analyzed above show he might encounter similar difficulties in this match. Although he has probably learned something (experience!), it is hard to completely change your character. Caruana could frustrate Magnus (especially with the Black pieces) by tenacious defence. I think if Magnus doesn’t score a win in the first half of the match, Caruana’s chances will increase significantly.
On the other hand, he is also known as a man who has never lost a tiebreak. He definitely has the determination and willpower to endure the pressure. But his main challenge will be battle against himself; not against the objective circumstances and the pressure of a World Championship match.
Caruana, on the other hand, is very dependant on his confidence. In the past, when things ‘clicked’, he was virtually unstoppable (who doesn’t remember his 7/7 in the Sinquefield Cup 2014). However, he has also had several lacklustre performances (even in Tata Steel 2018 he did badly). The victory in the Candidates obviously gave him a confidence boost for the rest of the year.
We will see whether he will be able to maintain his momentum. For the moment there is no reason to believe he will not.
My prediction
To wrap it all up, I still believe Carlsen should be considered as a slight favourite. His reputation, his playing strength, his H2H score against Caruana, his match experience should and his superiority in speed chess should outweigh Caruana’s optimism, confidence and good form.
However, he is not a favourite by a huge margin, as he was in his previous matches. If the chances were homogenous during the entire match, I would estimate them somewhere between 55-60 % in Carlsen’s favour. But as I have explained in this article, I do think this ratio changes throughout the match – should he win a game early or steer the game toward tiebreak, his chances increase.
In order to take all the factors into account and to show off my Matlab skills, I have decided to make a graph that shows how Carlsen’s and Caruana’s chances change from game to game:
(As if making this graph required some wicked Matlab skills. Well, at least there is something useful I can do with my engineering studies)
Will my insights and predictions be correct? Maybe. Maybe not. I honestly don’t know.
But I DO know one thing: I can’t wait to find out
When making a prediction you normally have a y variable and an x variable to predict y. I’m not clear what you used to “predict” probability of winning by the players.
Can you clarify what variables you used and what predictive method you used?
Hmm, no I didn’t use a sophisticated method. I simply entered my estimation and then interpolated with the help of spline. I just did it in Matlab so it looked kinda nice 😛