(Cover photo taken from the official FIDE Website)

Introduction

On April 3rd, 2024, one of the most anticipated, exciting, and important chess tournaments of the year ¹ – will begin.

The Candidates Tournament 2024, in which some of the World’s best players ² will battle for the ultimate victory and the opportunity to challenge the current World Champion, Liren Ding, for the World Championship Title in a match later this year. 

Given the prestige and importance of this event, I thought it would be a nice idea to preview it and make a fool of myself by analyzing the players’ chances and predicting the outcome. 

I hope you will enjoy it and find it useful. Or at least retroactively laugh at my poor predictions later down the road when they all turn out to be completely wrong.

Candidates Tournament 2024

Regulations and Format

The Candidates Tournament 2024 will be held from April 3rd-April 22nd, 2024. For the very first time in history, ³ it will be held on North American soil – in the Great Hall in Toronto, Canada. Despite all the “hiccups” and “visa issues” along the way. ⁴

Like  every Candidates Tournament in the modern era, ⁵ the tournament will be held using the round-robin format. This means that every player will play two games against every other participant – one with White and one with Black,  ⁶ throughout 14 rounds.

(Official schedule of the Candidates Tournament. Source: Candidates Tournament 2024 Regulations )

The time control for the event will be 120 minutes for the first 40 moves, followed by an additional 30 minutes for the rest of the game. The players will also receive a 30-second increment per move – but only starting from move 41 (no increment until the first time control). ⁷ 

Just like in the 2022 edition, in the case of a tie for first place, additional tiebreak games will be played. ⁸ The tiebreak system for 2024 is a little bit complicated, but it essentially consists of additional rapid games – and then also blitz games, if required. It also does take the possibility of multiple players tying for the first place, in which case an entirely new round-robin tournament ⁹ will be played. ¹⁰ 

In contrast to the 2022 edition, where there was some ambiguity related to the importance of second place in the tournament due to Magnus Carlsen potentially not defending his title, ¹¹ this time it is clear that the first place in the tournament is all that matters, since Liren has already announced he is going to defend his title, later this year.

List of Participants

As mentioned above, a total of eight players will be participating in the Candidates Tournament 2024. Qualification to the tournament was prescribed by the Candidates Tournament 2024 Regulations, as follows:

8 players that qualified for the Candidates Tournament 2024 – and their qualification paths/criteria – are as follows:

• Ian Nepomniacthchi – runner-up in the 2023 World Chess Championship match
• Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa – runner-up in the Chess World Cup 2023
• Fabiano Caruana – 3rd place winner in the Chess World Cup 2023
• Nijat Abasov – 4th place winner in the Chess World Cup 2023. Do note that only three players from the World Cup were supposed to qualify for the Candidates. But since the winner of the World Cup 2023 – Magnus Carlsen – refused his “invitation” to the Candidates, the spot was automatically assigned to the 4th place winner – Abasov.
• Santos Gujrathi Vidit – winner of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2023
• Hikaru Nakamura – runner-up of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2023
• Gukesh Dommaraju – runner-up of the FIDE Circuit 2023. Since the winner of the circuit was Fabiano Caruana who already qualified via the World Cup, the spot was given to the runner-up – who was Gukesh – instead. You might also recall the race for the FIDE Circuit spot intensified at the very last minute, with Gukesh participating in several last-minute tournaments (London Classic, Chennai Grand Masters) in which he managed to overtake Anish Giri by a very narrow margin.
• Alireza Firouzja – player with the highest rating that met FIDE’s requirements on January 2024. I am sure many of you will recall that the race for the rating spot was even more last-minute and controversial than the race for the FIDE Circuit. This entire story goes way beyond the scope of this article, but in case you were living under a rock in December 2023, you can read this and this article summarizing some of the key points.

Assessment of the participants’ chances

After introducing you to the regulations and the players, the time has come to make a fool out of myself by estimating each player’s chances and predicting the final standings of the tournament.

In my analysis, I will be focusing on three parameters:

• Strength/Recent Form – I thought of considering these separately, but have ultimately decided to couple them together. Not only because I feel someone’s chess strength is closely connected to their form. But also because I realized I would not be comfortable judging the chess strengths of these players and comparing them to each other ¹²
• Experience 

• Head-to-head score against the other participants

Fabiano Caruana

Strength/Form

I hope Fabiano Caruana doesn’t need a particular introduction. For more than a decade, he has been considered to be one of the strongest chess players in the world. Many regard him as the 2nd best player of our generation. He came close to rivaling Magnus Carlsen on several occasions – most notably in 2018, just before their World Championship Match, when the difference between the two consisted of just a few rating points. No other player in the tournament came even remotely close to Caruana’s peak rating of 2844 ELO.

Caruana has not only historically been the 2nd best player in the world. But he is also entering the Candidates tournament as such. He is currently the only person – apart from Magnus Carlsen – to belong to the exclusive 2800+ ELO Club, with his rating sitting comfortably at 2803,2.

Such a high rating is the consequence of the fantastic form Caruana has been for the larger part of 2023. He won several elite events in which he participated (Superbet Chess Classic 2023, US Chess Championship 2023, Sinquefield Cup 2023) and had a very good performance in the World Cup 2023 (3rd place, securing the qualification spot) and Norway Chess 2023 (2nd place) and reasonable performance in FIDE Grand Swiss (+4-1=6, 7/11) and American Cup (3rd place).

Put simply, in the last year, Caruana hasn’t had even a mediocre – let alone a bad – event, so it is not a surprise his rating has once again skyrocketed.

(Caruana’s 2-year rating graph: Source: Caruana’s FIDE Profile)

This is not that surprising considering Caruana’s own admission that his motivation for chess has returned after it dipped down in the Covid/post-COVID period. I also think the fact that Magnus Carlsen will not be the one awaiting you in the match for the title will serve as an additional motivation boost ¹³, since this might be a unique opportunity to win that coveted title.

Experience

Caruana is not only incredibly strong – but he is also a very experienced player. This will already be his 5th Candidates Tournament and he also has experience when it comes to playing for the title of the World Champion. 

Head-to-head against the other participants

Caruana’s head-to-head score against the other participants in the tournament is, as follows:

• Caruana vs. Nepomniacthchi: +1-1=13
• Caruana vs. Nakamura: +8-9=33
• Caruana vs. Firouzja: +5-1=6
• Caruana vs. Vidit: +0-0=1 
• Caruana vs. Praggnanandhaa: +1-0=3
• Caruana vs. Gukesh: +1-1=1
• Caruana vs. Abasov: +1-1=0 ¹⁴

From Caruana’s head-to-head scores, we can observe the following:

• there is a staggering difference in the number of games Caruana has played against Nepomniachtchi, Nakamura and Firouzja and the rest of the field. I was extremely surprised by the fact he has only played a single classical game against Vidit. 
• Caruana only has a positive score against two players in the field – Praggnannadhaa (whom he beat in Tata Steel 2022 when Prag was younger – and weaker) and Firouzja – who does seem to be his “client”. 
• Caruana might experience some difficulty against Nakamura, who has beaten him in their last three classical encounters – at FIDE Grand Swiss, Norway Chess 2023 and in the 2nd half of the previous Candidates Tournament. Although it has to be noted that Fabi was Black in all these games and that he also scored a victory with White in the 1st half of that very same Candidates Tournament.
• His loss against Gukesh happened at the 2022 Chess Olympiad where Gukesh played the tournament of his life and where Caruana wasn’t at his best, while he beat him at Tata Steel 2023. I don’t think these games will be of that much relevance in their upcoming encounter.
• Caruana hasn’t played any games against the other participants in 2024, since he skipped Tata Steel Masters and since none of them ¹⁵ participated in the recently concluded American Cup 2023.

Thus, even though head-to-head results are not particularly in Caruana’s favour, due to the limited sample of games against half of the field, the limited amount of games played against the other participants very recently, and due to the fact the Candidates is a completely new tournament, I do think these “statistics” are not that relevant. 

Given Caruana’s “pedigree”, his recent form and experience, it is hard not to consider him as one of the main favourites of the event. 

Ian Nepomniacthchi

Strength/Form

Just like Fabiano Caruana, Ian Nepomniachtchi has been one of the best players in the world for quite some time now. He is capable of beating anyone in the world. At his peak, Nepo is perhaps even more scary than Caruana. ¹⁶ Not only is he a rather aggressive player – he also has the tendency to move very fast, putting a lot of pressure on the opponents, both on the board and on the clock.

When he is “on”, this can work wonderfully – which was especially apparent in the last Candidates tournament, which he won in a very convincing manner. Nepo is the type of “streaky” player who can suddenly start amassing wins and “running away” with the tournament.

On the other hand, due to his style, clock handling and emotional approach to the game, Nepo can equally easily go on a “negative” streak if things are not working out for him. Historically speaking, he has always been struggling with consistency, which is why his historical peak is much lower than, say, Caruana’s. As a matter of fact, he has never crossed the elite 2800 rating barrier, with his peak rating standing at 2795. Put simply, his level of play and stability varies a lot, which was very apparent in his recent World Chess Championship match against Ding.

Nepo’s form has also been far from stellar in recent times. Even though he hasn’t played a lot after his match against Ding, the tournaments he did play in didn’t quite go his way, to put it mildly:

• Superbet Chess Classic 2023: 3.5/9, lost 15 rating points ¹⁷
• FIDE World Cup 2023: Eliminated in round 5 by Vidit in tiebreak, lost 8 classical rating points
• Tata Steel Masters 2024: 6.5/13, lost 10 rating points

Experience

On the other hand, Nepo is one of the more experienced players in this – relatively young – field. Given his experience in the World Chess Championship matches and his back-to-back wins in the previous two Candidates, his fans can hope he will be able to utilize his experience to find his best form and go for a “three-peat”. 

Head-to-head against the other participants

Nepo’s head-to-head score against the other participants in the tournament is, as follows:

• Nepomniachtchi vs. Caruana: +1-1=13
• Nepomniachtchi vs. Nakamura: +2-3=7
• Nepomniachtchi vs. Firouzja: +4-3=2
• Nepomniachtchi vs. Vidit +2-0=5
• Nepomniachtchi vs. Praggnanandhaa: +0-0=2
• Nepomniachtchi vs. Gukesh: +0-1=1
• Nepomniachtchi vs. Abasov: +0-0=1

From Nepo’s head-to-head scores, we can observe the following:

• just like Caruana, Nepo has played a lot of games with three participants in the tournament, and very few games with four participants in the tournament
• Nepo doesn’t have an overwhelming plus score against any of the participants (his +2 score against Vidit can hardly be characterized as such)
• Nepo doesn’t have an overwhelming negative score against any of the participants, either.
• Nepo hasn’t played that many games against the other participants in recent times

In Nepo’s case, I would attribute even less significance to the head-to-head scores than in Caruana’s case. I do think his result will mainly depend on his form in the tournament. On the basis of the recent results, his fans don’t have a lot of ground for optimism. But given his experience and the fact he will probably be extremely motivated, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he just wins the entire event, given how strong he is at his very best.

All in all, I think he will do either very well, or rather poorly. This is the main reason why I have decided to come up with two predictions instead of just one at the end of this article.

Hikaru Nakamura

Strength/Form

Hikaru Nakamura has been a well-established elite player for more than a decade. Apart from Fabiano Caruana, he is the only player who firmly held 2nd place on the rating list –  reaching a peak of 2816 in October 2015. ¹⁸ I do think he is one of those players who had ¹⁹ World Championship potential in terms of pure raw talent/chess-playing strength. ²⁰

With that being said, in recent years ²¹ Nakamura has “semi-retired” from competitive chess and significantly reduced his activity in order more time for his streaming career. One would expect this change of priorities to negatively affect his results – as well as his rating. Whenever he comes out to play, people predict his lack of practice and lack of hours due to streaming obligations is going to tell.

Yet miraculously, nothing of the sort has happened. Nakamura has not only managed to maintain his level – but even improved upon it. Ever since 2022, he has been very successful in virtually every event he participated in:

• FIDE Grand Prix 2022: participated in leg 1 and leg 3, won 25 rating points, qualified for the Candidates
• FIDE Candidates 2022: scored 7.5/14, won 8 rating points, almost won 2nd place and qualified for the World Chess Championship match
• American Cup 2023: won the event after beating Semian and Dominguez in classical portion and So in the tiebreak. Won 7 rating points. 
• Norway Chess 2023: Won the event and 12 rating points.
• FIDE World Cup 2023: Perhaps the only event that can be labelled as “unsuccessful” in the two-year period. After beating Karthik in the rapid tiebreak and Gledura in the classical portion, Nakamura was eliminated by Praggnandhaa in the rapid tiebreak. Lost 7 classical rating points.
• Qatar Masters 2023: Scored 6.5/9, lost -2.40 rating points. Not a great event, but not a disastrous one, either.
• FIDE Grand Swiss 2023: Scored 8/11, won 10 rating points, qualified for the Candidates.

This series of great results increased his rating to 2789, which is currently sufficient for the 3rd place in the world ²²

(Nakamura’s rating progress since January 2023. Source: Nakamura’s FIDE profile)

Thus, it is fair to say Nakamura comes to the Candidates in great shape. Even though he has played only 3 classical games this year, his comparative lack of practice didn’t seem to be an issue in the past – and there is no reason to assume it will be an issue this time. ²³ 

I do feel he will be very motivated for this event since becoming a World Champion would further improve his own “brand”. And playing against Ding Liren is arguably the chance of a lifetime to win that title!

Experience

Nakamura is not only very strong, but he is also very experienced. As one of the older participants, he already has a number of elite events under his belt. He has also participated in two Candidates tournaments – back in 2016 ²⁴ and in the most recent one in 2022, where only the last-round loss to Ding prevented him from winning the 2nd place and qualifying for the match against Nepomniachtchi. 

Given he already mentioned that he used his negative result from 2016 to approach 2022 differently, we can say he learned from his experience. How much of a role it will play this time – remains to be seen.

Head-to-head against the other participants

Nakamura’s head-to-head score against the other participants in the tournament is, as follows:

• Nakamura vs. Caruana: +9-8=33
• Nakamura vs. Nepomniachtchi: +3-2=7
• Nakamura vs. Firouzja: +1-0=2
• Nakamura vs. Vidit: +0-0=2
• Nakamura vs. Praggnananadhaa: +0-0=2
• Nakamura vs. Gukesh: +1-0=0
• Nakamura vs. Abasov +1-0=0

From Nakamura’s head-to-head scores, we can observe the following:

• Naka is the only player who has a positive score with 5 of the other participants (albeit a relatively “small” one)
• he has played a lot of games against Caruana and Nepo and very few games against the rest of the field. I was somewhat surprised by the relatively low amount of encounters he has had with Firouzja. 
• it has to be said that he hasn’t played against Nepomniachtchi a lot in recent years. Their last two classical games happened in the 2022 Candidates. Hikaru had some chances in his White game, while the second game featured the disgraceful “Berlin” draw
• his recent games against the other participants do give him a lot of reason for optimism. As mentioned above, he has beaten Caruana in their last three encounters – although he had White pieces in all these games. He has also beaten Gukesh and Firouzja relatively recently in Norway Chess 2023. And most recently, he won a game against Nijat Abasov in the German Bundesliga where he blundered in the opening and was just a pawn down. ²⁵

All in all, I think Nakamura’s recent form, his positive head-to-head score against the other participants (especially in recent times), the fact he has done well in almost every post-epidemic event, and his very solid and reliable opening repertoire will outweigh his comparative “lack of practice”. I don’t see a reason not to predict he will again do well. 

With that being said, I don’t quite see him winning the Candidates, simply because I do consider Caruana and Nepo to be stronger when they are “on”. I have, therefore, predicted him to win the 2nd or the 3rd place in the event. Although it wouldn’t surprise me if he did go all the way, given all the nerves involved and his “I don’t care” attitude. ²⁶

Alireza Firouzja

Strength/Form

Alireza Firouzja is widely regarded as one of the greatest talents our game has ever seen. Even though he is only 21, he has been a top player for at least 5 years – ever since he first broke the 2700 rating barrier at the age of 16. He is also the youngest player in history to break the 2800 barrier – a feat he managed to achieve in December 2021, at the age of 18. Given all the accomplishments, it is not surprising he has been regarded as “The Chosen One” – or the legitimate successor of Magnus Carlsen.

However, this is easier said than done. So far, Firouzja hasn’t come close to participating in a World Championship Match. True, he did qualify for the previous Candidates tournament, but with the final result of 6/13, he was nowhere close the first two places.

In recent times, a lot of questions regarding Firouzja’s motivation/dedication have appeared in chess circles. The truth is – in last few years, Alireza has played very little classical chess. After achieving the rating of 2804 in December 2021, Firouzja wouldn’t play a single tournament until Candidates 2022 – which happened in June. ²⁷

A similar story happened in 2023, as Firouzja didn’t play a single classical game in the first six months of the year. Furthermore, the events he participated in in the second half of the year didn’t quite go the way he would like. After a reasonable performance in Superbet Chess Classic in June, Alireza would have a pretty bad Norway Chess 2023, and disastrous Grand Swiss 2023 and Sinequfield Cup 2023.

The rating losses in the last two events seriously jeopardized his rating spot/participation in the Candidates, which ultimately prompted him to organize the aforementioned matches in Chartres/play in an open tournament in Rouen and cause a fair bit of drama at the end of last year.

On the other hand, events in December did demonstrate that Alireza is still pretty much thinking about chess, despite the fact he has also started studying fashion design in Paris in the meantime. In his most recent event in Tata Steel 2024, he did do reasonably well, scored 7.5/13, played some uncompromising, fighting chess, and reminded us of “the Alireza of old”, at times. However, his uncompromising style is often a double-edged blade, as he also suffered some pretty bad losses, such as in his games against Vidit or Ju Wenjun.

Experience

Even though he is still extremely young, I think we have to count Alireza among the more experienced participants. Not only has he been a part of the elite for longer than, say, Gukesh, Praggnanandhaa – and even Vidit. But apart from Caruana, Nakamura, and Nepomniachtchi, he is the only player who has already participated in a Candidates tournament.

His fans can hope he has learned from his experience and that he will use the knowledge to have a better result this time. 

Head-to-head against the other participants

Firouzja’s head-to-head score against the other participants in the tournament is, as follows:

• Firouzja vs. Caruana: +1-5=6
• Firouzja vs. Nepomniachtchi: +3-4=2
• Firouzja vs. Nakamura: +0-1=2
• Firouzja vs. Vidit: +0-2=1
• Firouzja vs. Praggnanandhaa: +0-0=2
• Firouzja vs. Gukesh: +1-1=1
• Firouzja vs. Abasov: +2-0=1

From his head-to-head scores, we can observe:

• Firouzja’s head-to-head score doesn’t inspire much confidence. He has a negative score against four other participants and has been particularly struggling against Caruana, who not only has a large plus score against him but who has also beaten him twice with Black (!!) in their most recent encounters – at Norway Chess 2023 and Sinquefield Cup 2023. 
• He also lost quite badly to Vidit in Tata Steel Masters 2024
• Firouzja also lost his “mini-matches” to Nepomniachtchi and Nakamura in the last Candidates tournament
• He does have a positive score against Abasov and an equal score against two other “youngsters”

All in all, Firouzja’s placement was incredibly hard to predict. On one hand, his form hasn’t been stellar in the last few months – and his mind seemingly wasn’t fully focused on chess. On the other hand, everybody knows he is an enormous talent with enormous potential who already has a lot of experience playing at the top level. Given that he has been seemingly fully focusing on chess again, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to assume he might be the “surprise” of the tournament.

After some thinking, however, I have decided to put him in the middle of the tournament table. I do think his sharp and uncompromising style will lead to a number of decisive games – but I also think he will experience some bad losses because of it. Even though we shouldn’t read too much into the results of Tata Steel, I can envision his Candidates’ tournament following a similar trajectory. 

Although I can also envision him just winning a bunch of games and qualifying for the match if he brings his absolute best.

Santosh Gujrathi Vidit

Strength/Form

Santos Gujrathi Vidit is a unique player in the field, in the sense that he might be the only player ²⁸ who hasn’t had a meteoric rise to the heights of top-level chess. Even though he was the World U14 Champion, he became the grandmaster at the “late” age of 19. ²⁹ And even though he broke the 2700 rating barrier at the age of 23 and has been floating in the 2700-2730 range ever since – he hasn’t managed to break to the very elite and participate in that many top-level events.

Until recently. 

With a series of good results in 2023, Vidit not only reached the peak rating of 2747. But also managed to qualify for the Candidates for the very first time in his life – at the age of 29 – with a fantastic performance at the FIDE Grand Swiss 2023. 

Vidit also continued his form at the beginning of 2024, with a very good performance at Tata Steel 2024. True, his most recent event in Prague didn’t go that well, to put it mildly. But I wouldn’t pay to much significance to it, since his mind was almost certainly on the Candidates already. 

Therefore, I think Vidit is coming to the Candidates in good form and his motivation must be at an all-time high.

Experience

Despite his age and the fact he is among the older participants in the tournament, Vidit doesn’t have that much experience playing at this level. Not only will this be his first Candidates tournament, but I was also unable to find many top-level closed round-robin events where he participated³⁰ (apart from Tata Steel 2019, 2022, and 2024 and several issues of Prague Masters). ³¹

Head-to-head against the other participants

Vidit’s head-to-head score against the other participants in the tournament is, as follows:

• Vidit vs. Caruana: +0-0=1
• Vidit vs. Nepomniachtchi: +0-2=5
• Vidit vs. Nakamura: +0-0=2
• Vidit vs. Firouzja: +2-0=1
• Vidit vs. Praggnanandhaa: +3-3=1
• Vidit vs. Gukesh: +0-0=2
• Vidit vs. Abasov: +0-2=1

From the head-to-head scores, we can observe the following:

• as indirectly hinted above, despite being a 2700+ player for 6 years, Vidit has played a remarkably small amount of games against top players such as Caruana and Nakamura. 
• I was also surprised to see only 2 classical games against his compatriot Gukesh – but also how bloodthirsty his battles with Prag have been, considering the relatively “solidity” of both players
• Vidit has had good results against Firouzja in the past, but he has also suffered some painful losses against Abasov – most notably in the World Cup 2023. This prevented Vidit from securing the Candidates spot at the time. We will see how relevant these past scores will be in the upcoming event, but they might play a psychological role.

All in all, despite his great preparation and impressive and inspiring work ethic that allowed him to achieve the greatest success of his career relatively late, I think players such as Caruana, Nepo and Nakamura are stronger and more experienced. And that “youngsters” such as Gukesh, Firouzja or Praggnannadhaa are more likely to be the “surprise” of the tournament. 

I am also a bit unsure how well will Vidit deal with the tension. In the past, he did seem to collapse under pressure, as his aforementioned game against Abasov, or his most recent last-round loss against Wei Yi at Tata Steel demonstrate. ³²

Thus, all things considered, have decided to put Vidit on the 6th place in my prediction. This may seem a bit harsh, but I would be genuinely surprised to see him in the upper half of the tournament table.

Whether this statement will make me like an absolute fool after the tournament, remains to be seen.

Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu 

Strength/Form

We will continue our exploration of the “Indian trio” by taking a closer look at the 2nd youngest participant in this Candidates tournament, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu. Considering how long he has been around and how well-known he is, it is easy to forget Prag is only 19. 

However, despite the fact he became the International Master at the age of 10 and the 2nd youngest GM at the age of 12, ³³Prag’s rise to the top wasn’t as meteoric and sudden as one would expect. Back in 2020 – just before the pandemic – he was “only” rated at 2600. And even though he did “explode” to a certain extent in the post-COVID years, he was struggling to break the magical 2700 barrier and seemed to be somewhat overshadowed by the likes of Erigaisi and Gukesh. Not to mention Firouzja. ³⁴ 

This all changed in the second half of 2023 when Prag suddenly started breaking through. First, he finally broke the 2700 barrier with a fantastic performance at the Dr.Hetenyi Geza Super GM Memorial. He followed that up with a historic, remarkable performance at the World Cup 2023, where he reached the final after eliminating Lagarde, Navara, Nakamura (!), Berkes, Erigaisi, and Caruana, gaining an additional 20 rating points and qualifying for the Candidates.

His successful performances in the Spanish League and Tata Steel Masters 2024 further elevated his rating to an all-time high of  2747 and further complicating the eternal battle for the Indian number one. 

(Praggnanandhaa’s rating progress since January 2023. Source: Prag’s FIDE profile)

Prag also performed very well at the recently concluded Prague Masters 2024,³⁵ where he scored 5/9  and finished ahead of Gukesh and Vidit. He is, therefore, entering the Candidates in very good form and will surely be motivated to make the most of this opportunity.

Experience

On the other hand, due to his youth and the fact he has only recently increased his rating to the top 20 level, Prag has had limited experience in top classical events and this is also his very first Candidates. As we have seen with Alireza in 2022 – this inexperience might play a role. Although one could also make an argument “The Indian school of chess” is much less prone to tilting and playing bullet until 6 am during such an important event. 

Prag has always struck me as an incredibly mature and composed person. He also seems to be able to deal with the pressure extremely well, as his fantastic World Cup run demonstrates. We will see whether his composure and nerves will be able to compensate for the comparative lack of experience. And whether he will be able to display the same level he displayed in the World Cup/recent months.

Head-to-head against the other participants

Praggnanandhaa’s head-to-head score against the other participants in the tournament is, as follows:

• Praggnananadhaa vs. Caruana: +0-1=3
• Praggnanandhaa vs. Nepomniachtchi: +0-0=2
• Praggnanandhaa vs. Nakamura: +0-0=2
• Praggnanandhaa vs. Firouzja: +0-0=2
• Praggnanandhaa vs. Vidit: +3-3=1
• Praggnannadhaa vs. Gukesh: +2-2=3
• Praggnananadhaa vs. Abasov: +0-0=0

From the head-to-head scores, we can observe the following:

• As expected, due to his limited experience, Prag has played very few games against most of the other participants in this event. He has never played a single classical game against Abasov.
• The notable exceptions are his compatriots Vidit and Gukesh. I was surprised to see so many decisive games between these players. I guess it shows there is a fierce rivalry between every camaraderie. ³⁶

All things considered, I have decided to pick Prag as the potential “dark horse” of the tournament. I do feel he might still be somewhat “underrated” and not lacking in pure chess-playing strength behind Caruana, Nepo, or Nakamura. I think his play has matured a lot and that he has become incredibly tough to beat, as his recent streak of 47 undefeated games demonstrates.

I do not quite think he has it in him to go all the way. But I most certainly see him in the upper half of the tournament table. Although the possibility of him winning shouldn’t be completely ruled out.

Gukesh Dommaraju

Strength/Form

Even though he is one year younger than his compatriot Pragnnanadhaa, Gukesh has arguably had a more meteoric rise to the world’s top. 

Even though he has been a child prodigy, a young GM, and all that jazz, Gukesh first made his name to the wider audience with his remarkable performance at the Chennai Olympiad 2022. Apart from securing him an individual gold medal, this result also enabled him to cross the 2700 rating barrier for the first time. Ever since, he has firmly established himself as one of the best players in the world, peaking at 2758 and overtaking Vishy Anand as the new Indian number 1 for a brief period.

True, after this peak, Gukesh did experience a certain dip in form (and rating) ³⁷. In November and December 2023, he lost almost 40 rating points and dropped all the way to 2720, placing his participation in the Candidates into question. Only the last-minute effort and good performance in the Chennai Masters at the end of last year enabled him to snatch the Grand Circuit spot from Anish Giri.

It seems that this good result and qualification for the Candidates renewed his vigor/passion/motivation. Gukesh had a fantastic tournament at Tata Steel 2024, gaining 17 rating points and coming close to winning the entire thing. After picking a few additional points in Bundesliga, he is currently sitting at 2747 ELO – the same rating as his compatriots Vidit and Prag. ³⁸

Thus, it seems Gukesh is back to his “old self” and fully ready for the Candidates.

Experience

Just like Prag – one thing Gukesh doesn’t have going his way is the experience. Even though he has reached 2700 sooner and participated in more elite events, I think this difference is negligible – especially since Gukesh wasn’t as active/successful in online events such as the Champions Chess Tour, compared to Prag.

As mentioned previously, it is a big question how relevant of a factor this is. But given that Gukesh is even younger than Prag, I wouldn’t be surprised if he succumbs to the pressure to the same extent Alireza succumbed back in 2022.

Head-to-head against the other participants

Gukesh’s head-to-head score against the other participants in the tournament is, as follows:

• Gukesh vs. Caruana: +1-1=1
• Gukesh vs. Nepomniachtchi: +1-0=1
• Gukesh vs. Nakamura: +0-1=0
• Gukesh vs. Firouzja: +1-1=1
• Gukesh vs. Vidit: +0-0=2
• Gukesh vs. Praggnananadhaa: +2-2=3
• Gukesh vs. Abasov: +0-0=1

In order not to repeat myself, I will merely remark that Gukesh has not played many games against the other participants in the tournament and that his clashes with Prag have been incredibly bloodthirsty so far. However, it is hard to say how relevant all this will be, given that the Candidates will be a completely new tournament with an unprecedented amount of pressure. 

All in all, trying to predict how Gukesh would do was a particularly difficult task, given his youth, potential, and inexperience. Ultimately, I have decided to rate his chances lower compared to the “big three” (Caruana, Nepo, and Nakamura), the other two youngsters (Firouzja and Prag), but higher compared to Vidit and Abasov. 

Comparison with Prag was in particular, very challenging. But ultimately I have decided to give preference to Prag simply because of the nerves/pressure factor. I could remember a few instances where Gukesh was failed by his nervous system – most notably against Abdusattorov at the Chennai Olympiad 2022. But also against Wei Yi in the tiebreak of this year’s Tata Steel, to a certain extent. 

Given his youth, certain volatility, and very uncompromising approach, I feel there is a higher probability of him “going down in flames” compared to some other players. 

But whatever the case, one thing is certain – it will be extremely interesting to follow his games.

Nijat Abasov

Strength/Form

Last, but not least, we have arrived at the final and the lowest-rated participant in the Candidates tournament, Nijat Abasov. Even if you are not a big fan of my joke in the introduction,³⁹ I am sure you will agree with my evaluation that Abasov is, objectively, the weakest player in the field, given that his peak rating of 2679 is far away from the CURRENT rating of all the other players and that he has never crossed the 2700-mark. ⁴⁰ 

True, his performance in the World Cup has demonstrated that rating is not everything and that Abasov can hold his own against the world’s very best. And that he also has very good nerves in high-pressure situations. 

But one could also make an argument this performance had little to do with classical chess, given that he won most of his matches in tiebreaks. And that the pressure was mostly on his higher-rated opponents, while he barely had anything to lose. ⁴¹

On the other hand, a lot of water has passed under the bridge since World Cup 2023. Ever since, Abasov’s form has been far from stellar, to put it mildly. In recent months, he has been “bleeding rating” on all fronts. Since November 2023, he has lost almost 50 rating points and is currently sitting at 2632 ELO, which is sufficient for the 110th place in the world.

(Abasov’s rating progress since January 2023. Source: Abasov’s FIDE profile)

Experience

Abasov is also not faring that well in the “experience” department. This will not only be his very first Candidates – but virtually his first-ever top event. He has very limited experience playing against top players – especially in events where they have been able to specifically prepare for him for many months. One would think superior preparation is something that distinguishes 2700+ and 2600+ players, although we will see how much of a role it will play.

Head-to-head against the other participants

One thing Abasov has going his way is the head-to-head score with other participants, which is as follows: 

• Abasov vs. Caruana: +1-1=1
• Abasov vs. Nepomniachtchi: +0-0=1
• Abasov vs. Nakamura: +0-1=0
• Abasov vs. Firouzja: +0-2=1
• Abasov vs. Vidit: +2-0=1
• Abasov vs. Praggnananadhaa: +0-0=0
• Abasov vs. Gukesh: +0-0=1

A couple of observations:

• Abasov has demonstrated he can hold his own against top players. In the World Cup, he beat both Vidit and Caruana in classical games
• The number of games he has played against top players is fairly limited, though.
• Most of these games happened in events such as World Cup, FIDE Grand Swiss or German Bundesliga, where time for preparation is rather limited
• His most recent games against the other participants – the one against Firouzja from FIDE Grand Swiss 2023 and the one against Nakamura from Bundesliga 2024, don’t give him much reason for optimism. The latter one was especially painful, considering Abasov had a clear extra pawn after Nakamura mixed up the move order in the opening, as mentioned previously.

Thus, when you combine Abasov’s playing strength, recent form, and lack of experience, it is hard to imagine him not coming up last in this tournament. Even if he manages to repeat his form from the World Cup we take the whole “he-plays-without-pressure-while-others-have-to-score-points-against-him” point into consideration. 

After all – you might recall that Kiril Alekseenko barely managed to avoid this fate in the 2020-2021 Candidates – and he was much less of an underdog. ⁴² 

My Predictions

Variation A: Caruana in form, Nepo out of form

1. Fabiano Caruana
2. Hikaru Nakamura
3. Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
4. Alireza Firouzja
5. Dommaraju Gukesh
6. Ian Nepomniachtchi
7. Vidit Santosh Gujrathi
8. Nijat Abasov

Variation B: Nepo in-form

1. Ian Nepomniachtchi
2. Fabiano Caruana
3. Hikaru Nakamura
4. Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
5. Alireza Firouzja
6. Dommaraju Gukesh
7. Vidit Santos Gujrathi
8. Nijat Abasov

1. Or more precisely – two years
2. And Nijat Abasov?Is it too early to start making such jokes in the Introduction to the article?
3. Note: Technically, this statement is not fully correct, given that the famous Fischer-Taimanov quarterfinals Candidates match was held in Vancouver back in 1971 when the Candidates Cycle consisted of matches. However, given that this match featured only two out of eight participants and that the full tournament was never held in America or Canada, I think the statement above is correct. Although we are arguing semantics at this point, anyway.
4. See the following article on chess.com for more details
5. More precisely – since 2013, when the tournament format was reestablished. See my articles on Anand-Gelfand and Anand-Carlsen matches for more details
6. But not consecutively!
7. It has to be said that some players have expressed their displeasure with such a strange time control since it is virtually used only in the Candidates Tournament – and nowhere else. It is also rather strange that the Woman’s Candidates Tournament, which will be for the first time held simultaneously with the “regular” one, will feature a completely different time control. I will elaborate on this point in a separate article devoted to that event.
8. This is in sharp contrast with the previous editions, where the tiebreak criteria mostly consisted of head-to-head scores or most wins in the event. And is – in my humble opinion – the step in the right direction.
9. First rapid – and then blitz in case of a multiple-tie in the rapid portion
10. For those who want to find out more details, please check the official Candidates Tournament 2024 Regulations
11. Even though Magnus stated he is not very likely to defend the title prior to the tournament, some players – most notably Caruana – didn’t believe him, so he decided to go “all in” and fight for the first place. Later it transpired he would indeed give up the title and that the 2nd place winner – Liren Ding – would get to play against the 1st place winner – Ian Nepomniachtchi – for the World Championship Title.
12. Although I do think there is a clear difference in strength between certain players – say, Caruana and Abasov. But comparing the strength of, say, Caruana and Nepo or Firouzja, Vidit, and Praggnanandhaa seems much more complicated
13. For all players
14. These statistics refer only to the classical games. They were taken from the website www.chessgames.com and are relying on their database. There is a chance a game or two are missing, but I think they are nevertheless sufficient to paint the general picture.
15. Not even Nakamura
16. Although this could be heavily debated
17. Although this one shouldn’t be judged too seriously, given that it was played immediately after the match
18. This also makes him the only player apart from Caruana and Firouzja to break 2800 in this Candidates field
19. has?
20. He was just somewhat unfortunate to be born in the era of certain Magnus Carlsen. Like many others.
21. Since the COVID epidemic
22. Behind Magnus Carlsen and Fabiano Caruana
23. Especially since Nakamura plays high-level chess online all the time. He attributed his recent series of good results partly to this factor. And partly to the fact his streaming success alleviated the pressure of having to perform when playing classical tournaments.
24. When he didn’t do that well and came in 7th
25. You can find Nakamura’s own analysis of this game on his Youtube Channel
26. It will also be interesting to see how Hikaru – as well as other players – will behave in a situation where he has to chase the leader. Someone sitting in the 2nd place in the middle of the tournament might risk more in the 2nd half and therefore drop down in the tournament standings as a result.
27. Which many considered as a strange choice – especially retroactive, when it turned out the result wasn’t that great
28. Apart from Abasov
29. Compare this to Prag or Gukesh who are already playing in the Candidates at that age
30. Which probably tells more about the broken system of these events rather than Vidit’s strength. But that is a topic for another article
31. Although one could debate whether Prague Masters falls into the same category of “absolute top events”
32. Although one could also make an argument his amazing comeback in FIDE Grand Swiss 2023 after the first-round loss was an amazing display of character.
33. Even though it now seems like a distant past
34. Note: I am mainly referring to the classical chess. Already in the COVID period, Prag proved he is capable of competing with the world’s very best in faster time controls.
35. Tournament ended in March, so was not yet rated for the March list
36. It has to be mentioned – while I do know that Prag and Erigaisi are good friends – I am not 100% sure about the relations between Gukesh, Vidit, and Prag. It will also be interesting to see who the seconds of these players are and how exactly the mighty Indian Chess Federation distributes their resources. I hope we will get some information about it at some point.
37. Not unexpected from someone this young
38. Although it has to be said that the rating on the FIDE Website doesn’t correspond to their current live rating, since the latter accounts for the Prague Chess Masters 2024
39. The aim of which was purely to provoke a chuckle from you, dear reader
40. Do note that this does not imply he is a “weak” player – just that he is weaker than the rest of the participants. Once again, it is not my intention to disrespect him in any manner. I do think his qualification to the Candidates is worthy of admiration and fully deserved. But I also want to be able to make jokes and statements based on objective facts, such as the rating difference between Abasov and all the other participants.
41. Although one could also argue this will also be true in the Candidates tournament, where players might feel obligated to try and beat him, which might provide him with a lot of opportunities.
42. And that tournament was also split in two parts and featured heavily unmotivated Wang Hao